Officials familiar with the developments said the Center plans to shift its focus to containing the insurgency in the northeast of the country after already achieving its goal of ending left-wing extremism (LWE) in the country.
The Center plans to reallocate the forces involved in LWE-affected areas to the insurgency-affected states of Manipur, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland, and plans to achieve the mission by 2029, they said.
The reorganization of the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) is likely to begin after the end of the ongoing Assembly elections in West Bengal, where polling in the second phase is scheduled to take place on April 29, and in the Amarnath Yatra (July-August).
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Over the next few months, perhaps in mid-2026, selected units trained in guerrilla warfare – such as the CRPF’s CoBRA (Resolute Action Commando Battalion), which was formed to combat the Maoist insurgency, will move to the North-East (North-East). However, officials said the withdrawal from areas affected by the LWE operation would be calibrated, with a gradual reduction of forces, rather than a complete withdrawal.
Officials in Manipur, one of the targeted states, confirmed receipt of the first batch of new mine-protected vehicles that are being used in sensitive areas.
There are a total of 16 insurgent groups active in the northeast, with the largest number of groups in Manipur with eight, followed by Assam 3, Meghalaya 2, Tripura 2, and Nagaland 1.
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Government data show a sharp decline in insurgency-related violence over the past decade. In 2014, there were 824 incidents, 1,934 extremists were arrested, 181 were killed, and 212 civilians were killed. By 2024, incidents had fallen to 294, with 31 extremists killed, 571 arrested, and 30 civilians killed.
The majority of these incidents and injuries in 2024 were linked to ethnic conflict in Manipur, which alone accounts for 77% of all insurgency-related cases in the region.
“The deployment of troops will begin in Manipur, where the insurgency poses a greater challenge compared to the northeastern states,” a Manipur officer, who requested anonymity, said.
“In closed meetings, senior government officials have already said that the insurgency and drug smuggling trade in the northeast must end. The deadline of 2029 has been mentioned several times. Several mine-protected vehicles, along with the bulletproof vehicles that the forces have in the erstwhile LWE states, will come to the northeast. Some light bulletproof vehicles have already arrived in the Ukrul district of Manipur, which has reported clashes between Nagas and Kukis. We do not know if these The vehicles have been brought from Chhattisgarh or other Manipur states are also getting their own vehicles for counter-insurgency functions, the officer said.
By mid-May, once state governments are formed in the states, the troops will be out, the officer said.
“This year’s Amarnath Yatra will have heavy security measures again. After the polls, some reinforcements will be shifted to Jharkhand and Odisha borders to track down the last leader of the Maoist Central Committee. After that, the focus will shift to Amarnath Yatra, and then to the northeast, starting with the Manipur rebels,” the officer said.
Even as the government declares India to be Naxal-free, with Maoist groups no longer controlling villages or running parallel ‘Jantana Sarkar’, one of the top leaders, Misr Basra, is believed to still be hiding in the forests of Jharkhand’s western Singhbhum district, now the only LWE-affected district in India. Earlier this month, three Cobra battalions, previously deployed in Chhattisgarh’s Bastar district, were transferred to Jharkhand to track him down.
Mizoram and Tripura have not recorded any insurgency-related cases over the past few years, while Meghalaya has reported only one incident, Home Ministry data for 2024 revealed. In contrast, Manipur reported 226 cases, followed by Nagaland with 42, Arunachal with 17, and 7 cases in Assam.
A second officer, who requested to remain anonymous, said the Interior Ministry has already assigned the Narcotics Control Bureau to plan a systematic crackdown on drug trafficking in the region as the drug trade is being used to finance the rebels.
