Despite the presence of a large number of women in the constituencies in Tamil Nadu, the contours of the elections have witnessed a shift as analysts believe that a majority of them do not form a single cohesive voting base.
At the heart of the upcoming House of Representatives elections in the state are female voters, who constitute more than 51% of the electorate, with approximately 56.7 million voters, a number that exceeds the number of men by approximately 1.2 million. The same applies to them in 215 out of 234 electoral districts in the state.
However, experts have found fault lines in women’s voting base, the majority of whom are arguably divided along lines of caste, caste and religion. “Women constitute the majority of voters in Tamil Nadu. However, they are not one cohesive voting base today. They are divided on the basis of caste, caste, religion etc. Jayalalithaa was the only one who could unite them and get them to vote for the AIADMK,” psychologist Arun Krishnamurthy said.
It is noteworthy that major political parties, including Prime Minister M. K. Stalin’s Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) led by Edappadi K. Palaniswami (AIADMK), and actor-politician Vijay Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK), show a dearth of dominant female leaders.
Instead, the ballot contest raises a more complex question about who can best understand and capture the evolving aspirations of women voters in the state?
From consolidation to fragmentation
In 2021, a convergence of factors helped the DMK achieve a comfortable victory. The absence of J Jayalalithaa and internal leadership struggles in the AIADMK created the conditions for a turnaround. The DMK-led alliance coupled this with targeted welfare promises targeting women, allowing it to make inroads into a voter base that had historically favored the AIADMK.
“In 2021, a large chunk of women voters in the AIADMK went to the DMK as they had no other option in the absence of Jayalalithaa and infighting in the AIADMK leadership. DMK’s welfare promises tailored specifically to women was another factor. However, the shift of women voters from AIADMK to DMK was not organic and now, with the new alliance, or entry of TVK, one has to take into account women voters,” Krishnamurthy said. They are splitting and moving away from the DMK.”
Passion, leadership and the baseline of well-being
Women’s votes in Tamil Nadu resist simple classification, political leaders and analysts say. Instead, they continue to anchor their policy choices around welfare-driven promises.
Chennai-based author and activist Shalin Maria Lawrence said women’s voting behavior is issue-based and leadership-driven, shaped by the search for trusted leadership with emotional connection.
Parties such as Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) and TVK have attracted some women, especially in rural areas, by highlighting concerns about safety and violence, issues that mainstream Dravidian parties have only recently taken up.
“There is also a growing sense of fatigue with welfare-focused policies, with concerns that benefits are crowding out deeper policy interventions,” Lawrence said. “Castity continues to shape participation, with reports of Dalit women considering boycotting elections in response to caste violence. At the same time, representation remains constrained.”
She noted that many women are reluctant to even contest local body elections, reflecting entrenched social, economic and cultural barriers and a political imagination that still struggles to see women as independent leaders rather than loyal vote banks.
DMK’s welfare plank
The DMK has focused its campaign on welfare delivery. Major schemes include free bus travel for women and Kalaignar Magalir Urimai Thittam (KMUT), which provides $1000 per month for one woman per family.
According to DMK leaders, schemes like KMUT or free bus services for women are conscious decisions taken by the party for the structural empowerment of women in the state.
On the ground, these schemes have deepened the DMK’s outreach to women, especially among low-income families. But the response was not uniformly positive. A senior KDP leader said: “The party is fully aware of the welfare benefits it enjoys. It has made an effort to understand what women voters want and made welfare promises this time with the aim of retaining voters.”
KMUT eligibility criteria have generated dissatisfaction, especially among women whose applications were rejected for technical or data-related reasons. Government decision to transfer $5,000 to more than 13 million beneficiaries earlier this year, which Prime Minister Stalin described as a “summer package,” boosted support among beneficiaries but intensified resentment among those excluded.
The result is a dual effect of inclusion among those who benefit and discontent among those who are excluded.
AIADMK’s attempt at reclamation
Having lost a significant share of women in 2021, the AIADMK has positioned itself as a natural regainer of that base.
Her strategy involves promising a higher monthly allowance $2000 and revival schemes like Thaalikku Thangam (Gold for Marriage). However, structural challenges remain. The party’s campaign on women’s safety lacked coherence and its ability to maintain pressure on the ruling government remained uneven.
Vijay and the politics of disruption
Into this competitive space enters Vijay, whose appeal extends across traditional political categories.
“He is someone many have grown up watching on screen. There is a sense of familiarity and magic,” Krishnamurthy said.
This familiarity has translated into traction among women, as well as young people and first-time voters. “He clearly made a dent in women’s voting in both the AIADMK and DMK,” he added.
TVK has tried to position itself as a broad alternative, targeting women, youth, Scheduled Castes and minority communities. But personal differences and limited grassroots organizations have also raised concerns.
Women, work and the politics of everyday life
Tamil Nadu’s industrial economy relies heavily on women workers, especially in textiles, electronics and manufacturing. The state accounts for nearly 43% of India’s female factory workforce. However, much of this work remains low-paid, labor-intensive, and precarious, with limited upward mobility.
Veteran journalist and political analyst T Sigamani described this as a “structural paradox”.
“Women voters in Tamil Nadu treat governance, welfare and political choice as deeply intertwined, judging governments by the delivery of public services, safety and cost of living on a daily basis. They view welfare as economic support and recognition of their role within the family and the state,” he said.
“This results in a voting pattern that mixes emotional trust in leadership with practical calculations of stability and expediency,” Sigamani said.
The view from the ground makes it even clearer.
Bama Faustina Susraj, a Dalit writer, activist and feminist, has pointed out the changing nature of women’s work. Women are now moving beyond agriculture to corporate offices, IT parks, factories and worksites, often far from home, while domestic responsibilities remain unchanged.
“In this context, even modest social welfare interventions are gaining importance. A monthly cash transfer of $1000 gives women direct access to money. Free bus travel eliminates the cost of commuting to work. “These are very small things but very important for women, especially rural women,” she said.
According to both Bama and Sigamani, the practical logic behind women’s political choices is that “social welfare does not function as charity, but as an enabler of Independence, mobility, and survival.
The paradox of representation
Despite their centrality in electoral strategy, women remain underrepresented in political structures.
In 2021, only 12 women won elections for the House of Representatives, or just 5%, the lowest level since 2001.
In 2026, the DMK has fielded 18 female candidates, the AIADMK 20 and TVK 23, while the NTK stands with 117 female candidates, maintaining its 50% policy.
One senior political official admitted that the selection of candidates is still based on entrenched notions of “ability to win.” Parties often send women to unwinnable or reserved electoral districts, and treat representation as symbolic rather than substantive.
He added that the parties are aware of the electoral importance of women voters, but are reluctant to nurture strong women leaders, “because they are concerned about creating another figure with the political dominance of Jayalalithaa.”
