India is likely to see a “below normal” monsoon this year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Monday in the first phase of its long-range forecast for the monsoon season. Rainfall is expected to reach 92% of the long-period average, with a margin of error of +/- 5%, a forecast that could indicate challenges facing the country’s rain-fed agriculture and broader rural economy.
The average seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole during the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm.
The IMD spatial distribution indicates that below normal monsoon rainfall is likely in many parts of the country except some areas in northeast, northwest and south peninsular India, where normal to above normal rainfall is likely.
The projections carry significant economic implications. Monsoon is the lifeline of the Indian economy. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, 51% of the cultivated area in India, which represents 40% of production, depends on rain. With 47% of the country’s population dependent on agriculture for their livelihood, a lower-than-expected monsoon could dampen consumption in rural areas and push up food prices in a year when conflict in West Asia threatens to pose a greater threat to the availability of energy and fertilizer – critical agricultural inputs.
The last time India received “below normal” rainfall was in 2023, also an El Niño year, when rainfall over the country as a whole during the monsoon season was 94% of the LPA.
El Niño conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season especially during July, August and September, according to the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS).
At present, weak La Niña-like conditions are turning into neutral conditions for climate variability over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Characteristics of atmospheric circulation across the tropical Pacific remain consistent with weak La Niña-like conditions. Moreover, at present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions exist over the Indian Ocean and the latest climate model projections indicate that positive IOD conditions are likely to develop only at the end of the southwest monsoon season.
The extent of winter and spring snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia, which has a generally inverse relationship with subsequent southwest monsoon rainfall over the country, is marginally adequate, IMD scientists said.
“In general, we can say that the onset of El Niño during the monsoon and neutral IOD conditions are likely to impact the monsoon. Hence we expect less than normal rainfall during the season,” said M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences.
He added, “But we expect the effect to be more noticeable during the second half of the monsoon. We do not expect much of the impact of the El Niño phenomenon during the months of June and July.”
El Niño and La Niña are two opposite phases of the natural climate cycle — called ENSO, or El Niño Southern Oscillation — driven by changes in sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño, the warmest phase, usually suppresses the monsoon in India and leads to weaker rainfall. La Niña, its cooler counterpart, tends to enhance it.
The IMD has prepared its LRF for the monsoon based on statistical and dynamical models that take into account oceanic and atmospheric conditions.
Statistical models indicate that there is a 35% chance of a “deficient” monsoon (< 90%); 31% probability of a “below normal” monsoon (90 to 95%); 27% probability of a “normal” monsoon (96 -104%); 6% probability of an “above normal” monsoon (105-110%) and only 1% probability of “excess” rainfall (> 110%).
“The MME (Multi-Model Ensemble) forecast of southwest monsoon rainfall for 2026 has been prepared based on April initial conditions and using an ensemble of coupled climate models with the highest forecast skill for the Indian monsoon region,” the IMD said.
The Phase II forecast issued around the end of May includes an update to the monsoon rainfall forecast issued in April along with probabilistic forecasts of monsoon rainfall over the four homogeneous zones of India (northwest India, central India, south peninsular India and northeastern India) and the core monsoon zone (MCZ).
In addition, the IMD will issue quantitative and probabilistic forecasts for the country as a whole, and the spatial distribution of probabilistic forecasts for June rainfall over the entire country.
As reported by HT, private meteorological firm Skymet Weather also said that monsoon rainfall in India this year is likely to be below normal at around 94% of the long period average (LPA), with a margin of error of ±5%.
There is a 40% chance of below-normal rainfall — between 90% and 95% of the LPA — and a 30% chance of drought conditions, with precipitation falling below 90% of the LPA, according to Skymet’s forecast.
