A week into the US-Israel war against Iran, US President Donald Trump faces a growing array of military, economic and political risks that could complicate efforts to turn early battlefield gains into a broader geopolitical victory.
Despite major strikes on Iranian forces and the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the crisis has rapidly expanded into a regional conflict, raising the possibility of a protracted US military clash with consequences beyond Washington’s control.
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Analysts say the unfolding situation contrasts with Trump’s previous preference for limited operations, such as the January raid in Venezuela and the June strike on Iranian nuclear sites.
“Iran has a chaotic and potentially long-term military campaign,” Laura Blumenfeld of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington told Reuters. He added: “Trump risks the global economy, regional stability, and the performance of his Republican Party in the American midterm elections.”
Unclear ending
Trump has long promised to distance the United States from what he called “stupid” military interventions. However, analysts say the Iranian campaign, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, has become the largest US military operation since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
According to Reuters, critics say the administration has not clearly defined its ultimate goals or a detailed strategy for what would constitute a victory.White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly rejected that assessment, saying Trump’s goals were clear — “to destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles and production capacity, destroy its naval forces, end its ability to arm its proxies, and prevent it from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon.”
Political risks at home
For now, much of Trump’s MAGA base continues to support the war, despite criticism from some supporters opposed to foreign military interventions.But analysts say support may weaken if the conflict continues or US casualties increase. Polls increasingly indicate that many voters, including a major bloc of independents, remain concerned about another protracted war in the Middle East. Republican strategist Brian Darling said, according to what Reuters reported, “The American people are not interested in repeating the mistakes of Iraq and Afghanistan.”
“The MAGA base is divided between those who have relied on promises not to start a new war and those loyal to Trump’s rule.” To date, six US service members have been reported killed in the conflict. Asked in an interview with Time magazine about the possibility of Iranian-inspired attacks in the United States, Trump said: “I think… like I said, some people will die.” Jonathan Banikoff, a former US National Intelligence Officer for the Middle East, warned that US losses could become a turning point.
He said: “Nothing is more likely to hasten an early end to the war than American losses… and this is what Iran is counting on.”
Regional escalation
The war has already expanded beyond Iran and Israel, with Iran launching retaliatory strikes across the region, targeting several Middle Eastern countries in the wake of attacking US and Israeli military facilities. The Lebanese Hezbollah militia has resumed hostilities with Israel, opening another front in the conflict and underscoring Tehran’s ability to activate allied groups despite leadership losses.Trump also sent mixed signals about whether Washington seeks regime change in Tehran. While he initially suggested the possibility of overthrowing the Iranian leadership through internal rebellion, he later stopped supporting this goal.But Trump told Reuters he could play a role in choosing Iran’s next leader and encouraged Iranian Kurdish rebels to attack. He later demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” in a social media post.
Oil and economic impact
One of the most pressing concerns for policymakers is the threat to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which about a fifth of the world’s oil supplies passes.Iran has halted tanker traffic amid the conflict, raising fears of wider economic consequences if the disruption continues. Although Tehran later confirmed that the vital shipping route would be closed to US, Israeli and European ships only. “It’s an economic pain point for the U.S. economy that appears to have been completely unexpected,” said Josh Lipsky of the Atlantic Council think tank.A former US military official told Reuters that the economic fallout surprised some in the administration because experts in oil markets were not widely consulted before the strikes.
Questions about strategy
Some analysts believe Trump miscalculated that the campaign against Iran would unfold similarly to the previous Venezuela operation, where US special forces captured President Nicolas Maduro and gained influence over the country’s oil resources without long-term military action.However, Iran has proven to be a more resilient opponent thanks to a well-established political and security establishment. Even the joint US-Israeli strike that killed Khamenei and other senior leaders did not prevent Iran from escalating retaliation, raising questions about whether more hardline figures could replace the current leadership.Retired US Army Lieutenant General Ben Hodges told the agency that although the US Army’s tactics were effective, the broader strategy remained uncertain. He added: “From a political, strategic and diplomatic point of view, it seems that the matter has not been fully thought through.”
Gulf allies and regional concerns
The conflict also puts pressure on Gulf Arab states that host US military bases and have pledged significant investments in the United States.While many Gulf governments have aligned themselves with Washington in the wake of Iranian missile and drone attacks, concerns remain in the region about the broader consequences of the war.In an open letter to Trump, Emirati businessman Khalaf Al Habtoor wrote: “Who gave you the right to turn our region into a battlefield?”With the cost of the campaign rising—by the first week, the United States had spent nearly $3.7 billion according to CSIS, and the duration uncertain—Trump said the operation could last “four or five weeks” or “whatever it takes,” though he did not detail what the next phase of the strategy would involve.