Russia’s crude output fell for a second straight month in January as the world’s third-largest oil producer struggled to market its barrels due to US sanctions.
The country pumped an average of 9.28 million barrels of crude oil per day last month. (AFP)The nation pumped an average of 9.28 million barrels of crude oil per day last month, according to people with knowledge of the data, who asked not to be identified discussing classified information.
The figure – which does not include condensate output – is 46,000 barrels a day below levels already cut in December and about 300,000 barrels less than what Russia is allowed to produce under an agreement with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Partners.
Russia has classified its data on oil production, exports and refinery operations, making independent assessments difficult. Its energy ministry did not immediately respond to Bloomberg’s request for a comment on January output levels and future production plans.
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The decline in production comes as the volume of Russian crude oil held on tankers continues to rise, with some cargoes taking significant time to find buyers amid growing US pressure on the Kremlin. Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump said he was withdrawing an additional 25% tariff on India in return for it to stop buying oil from Russia.
India confirmed the trade deal but did not comment on details, including oil. Still, nearly all state-owned and private Indian refiners have stopped buying any spot cargo since Trump first mentioned the deal in a social media post a week ago.
In early February, Russian crude oil in the water reached 143 million barrels, nearly double from a year ago and more than a quarter from the end of November.
As India pulled out of the purchase, some tankers with approved barrels are now heading to China, Russia’s other major buyer. Yet it remains unclear whether the Chinese market is willing to absorb the extra barrels sold by Moscow.
The decline in production is a risk for the Russian budget, which last year relied on the oil and gas industry for about 23% of its income. In January, Russian government oil revenues had already fallen to a five-year low, due to weaker global prices, steeper discounts and a stronger ruble.
If Russian production continues to decline, the country risks losing its share of the global oil market to OPEC allies. The group agreed to keep output stable through the first quarter of 2026 and has so far made no public decision on its strategy beyond March.
Last week, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the group expects global oil demand to pick up from March or April. Novak’s comments are particularly important because Russia has recently advised OPEC to be cautious about adding barrels.
