NEW DELHI: Despite a recent drop in Russian oil flows amid renewed Western sanctions and pressure, there is no immediate indication of India zeroing in on Russian energy purchases and both sides have put measures in place to deal with such issues, people familiar with the matter said.
Speculation about India buying Russian oil, which accounted for 35% to 40% of its oil imports last year, grew after President Donald Trump announced on Monday a trade deal in which US tariffs on Indian goods would be cut to 18%, saying the Indian side had “agreed to stop buying Russian oil”. (Pool via Sputnik/Alexander Kazakov/Reuters)Speculation about India buying Russian oil, which accounted for 35% to 40% of its oil imports last year, grew after President Donald Trump announced on Monday a trade deal in which US tariffs on Indian goods would be cut to 18%, saying the Indian side had “agreed to stop buying Russian oil”.
People familiar with Moscow’s thinking said on condition of anonymity that since India increased its purchases of Russian oil after the West imposed sanctions on Russia over its war in Ukraine, there have been times when volumes have been affected by Western sanctions or pressure.
“We have seen several occasions when supply has fluctuated due to sanctions but it has always been temporary as both sides have developed mechanisms to deal with these disruptions,” said one of the people. “These mechanisms are finely tuned and come into play whenever there is pressure. Russia remains a steady and reliable energy supplier and it would not make economic sense for India to stop purchases altogether.”
The people noted that energy cooperation, including civil nuclear cooperation in areas such as small modular reactors (SMRs) and diversification of economic ties, was a key part of the agenda of the India-Russia annual summit last November. “There are several proposals that are being looked at especially in view of India’s growing energy demand,” the person said.
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A second person noted that Russian oil itself is not sanctioned – US and Western sanctions target Russian firms such as Lukoil and state-run Rosneft – and that India’s energy needs could be met by other Russian suppliers.
“The situation could also change rapidly if the US succeeds in its current efforts to end the war in Ukraine, once that happens sanctions are expected to ease,” the first person said.
Reuters reported that India imported 1.215 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude in January, with the Naira refinery – jointly owned by Rosneft and an investment consortium – accounting for 0.41 million bpd. Russian oil imports in January fell 12% on a daily basis from December, and oil imports in December fell nearly 22% from November. A level of 2 million bpd was witnessed by mid-2025.
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“Our base case is that India will largely exit the authorized counterparty, but Russian imports will maintain around 0.8-1.0 million bpd, which would be 17-21% of total crude imports,” JP Morgan said in a note.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, responding to a question about Trump’s claim that India had agreed to stop buying crude from Russia, said New Delhi was free to buy energy from any country, and there was nothing new about the decision to diversify crude suppliers.
“We, along with all other international energy experts, are well aware that Russia is not the only supplier of oil and petroleum products to India. India has always bought these products from other countries. So we do not see anything new here,” he said.
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova stressed the importance of India-Russia energy cooperation for stability in global markets. “We are confident that India’s purchase of Russian hydrocarbons is beneficial for both countries and contributes to maintaining stability in the international energy market. We are ready to continue close cooperation in this regard with our partners in India,” he said.
