Recent US intelligence reports indicate that Iran is unlikely to reopen the Strait of Hormuz anytime soon, as control of the key oil passage remains its main leverage against the United States, Reuters reported.Click here for live updatesTehran, which controls one side of the sea route, has effectively closed the strait in response to US-Israeli strikes on February 28 that sparked the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. About 20% of the world’s crude oil supplies pass through the waterway.
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Sources say Iran could continue to disrupt traffic to keep global energy prices high, increasing pressure on US President Donald Trump to end the nearly five-week-old war, which is unpopular with US voters.
The conflict may also have strengthened Iran’s regional position by demonstrating its ability to threaten a critical trade route.Trump downplayed the difficulty of reopening the Strait, noting that US forces could do so quickly.“With a little time, we could easily open the Strait of Hormuz, seize the oil, and make a fortune,” he said on the Truth Social website.Read also | ‘He could easily open the Strait of Hormuz, seize oil and make wealth’: Trump makes ‘gushing’ claimsHowever, analysts warn that military action would be risky and costly, given Iran’s geographic advantage and its ability to strike using drones, missiles and naval tactics.
Since the beginning of the war, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has attacked commercial ships, planted sea mines, and imposed tolls, making the road unsafe and causing traffic to decline sharply. These measures have pushed oil prices to their highest levels in several years and caused fuel shortages in countries that depend on Gulf exports, while also increasing inflation risks in America ahead of the midterm elections.Intelligence sources say that Iran is unlikely to give up this influence even after the war.
The Strait of Hormuz is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, with shipping lanes about 2 miles wide in each direction, making ships easy targets. Even limited attacks can disrupt the transfer.Experts add that even if the United States secures parts of the coast, Iran could still disrupt shipping using long-range capabilities from within its territory. Tehran may also seek to retain control to strengthen its negotiating position, secure deterrence and generate revenue through tolls for post-war reconstruction.
