“Is it?” That is the question labor MPs are asking themselves. But the meaning has changed in the last 24 hours.
After chaos erupted in the Commons last Wednesday afternoon over the release of the Peter Mandelson documents, MPs widely believed that Keir Starmer was the final straw for the leadership.
But a rebellion appeared to have begun – when the Scottish Labor leader, Anas Sarwar, called for Starmer to resign – seemingly Turned into a wet squib.
When a prime minister really struggles, people often see a different side of him. MPs, who have been briefed in the dark about his future for weeks, said they were genuinely convinced to give him another chance by a combative speech to MPs and peers on Monday evening.
As one MP put it: “We started with a heartfelt apology, it was like a contrite Scottish Presbyterian-style meeting. By the end the MPs were Southern Baptists singing hallelujah.”
So now “is it over?” Takes on a new meaning: Is danger over for Keir Starmer? As they hurried out of the Commons on Monday evening, one soft-spoken Cabinet minister said: “No.”
Leadership change is hard to put back in the bottle. Douglas Ross, the Scottish Tory leader, has called for Boris Johnson to resign in 2022 and that has had little effect. But Johnson eventually had to go after a few months.
You only need to look at the numbers. A private speech at a Parliamentary Labor Party (PLP) meeting was a good start, but it did not change Labour’s plight.
The party has reached a historic low, lagging far behind on reforms. Some polls put it in fourth place behind the Greens and the Conservatives.
Strange as it may seem given recent history, Starmer was the most unpopular Prime Minister. That polling depth was achieved as his own natural supporters lost faith in him over the past 18 months. Combined with his natural skepticism, it meant the ground was very thin.
A by-election is due in Gorton and Denton on February 26, where the party could come in third after Starmer made his own decision: to exclude Andy Burnham from the ballot paper.
More exchanges between Mandelson and ministers are likely to be released, unleashing new embarrassment and widening the blame even further. And then there are the May elections, the expected loss of the Welsh Sened, another defeat in Scotland – with a rebel Scottish leader – and the loss of councils across London to the Greens and independents.
Even with the popularity of the record, Starmer still has the chance to survive those moments of danger. Labor could win Gorton too; Campaigners on the ground say canvass returns are not as disappointing as feared.
Expectation management did a good job of preparing MPs for the worst case scenario in May. And the release of Mandelson’s texts may spare the Prime Minister from personal grudges, as their relationship was never close.
With little luck since Starmer won the election, he can withstand known threats. There is still a possibility of such an unknown The Chris Pincher groping scandal He fired Johnson after his impeachment of Ross and the investigation into Partygate. The PLP is still a tinderbox, even if Monday night’s speech poured some cold water on it.
But what many thinkers in Cabinet and the PLP would like to see is for Stormer to seize his moment of greatest danger for a broader reset, to see “Keir unleashed” – if Patti Morgan is McSweeney – and embrace a more progressive politics and economic reset. He has regained some goodwill, but how he uses it will define the next phase of his leadership — and it will be the final phase.
