Space is turning into a holocaust for satellites and the Earth’s atmosphere is changing (image generated by artificial intelligence)
A new phase of the space race is unfolding far from Earth, but its effects may not remain there. Satellite launches have seen a sharp increase recently, driven largely by huge commercial constellations designed to provide global broadband and other data services.
Currently, the planet has nearly 15,000 active satellites, many of which are designed to last only a few years before being replaced. When it fails or reaches the end of service, operators typically direct it back into the upper atmosphere, where it burns up. This practice aims to reduce space debris in low orbit. Researchers have begun to study the impact of recurring burning processes on atmospheric chemistry, ozone stability, and long-term climate processes that have not been fully mapped.
the The new space race He is building a holocaust For satellites above the Earth
According to a study published in The Conversation, most retired satellites are deliberately deorbited so that they disintegrate during reentry. Engineers describe this as cancelability. The idea is simple. Devices must not survive a fall.But when thousands of things burn every year, the process doesn’t seem small. Scientists studying upper aerosols in 2023 have discovered metal particles associated with spacecraft. Aluminum is widely used in satellite frames.
When it burns, it forms alumina particles. They can remain suspended for long periods at high altitudes.The exact material mix inside commercial satellites is not publicly detailed in most cases. This makes modeling difficult. Researchers work with estimates. Uncertainty itself is part of anxiety.
Plans to create one million satellites would change the size
In early 2025, SpaceX applied to the Federal Communications Commission for approval to significantly expand its Starlink network.
The proposal specifies up to 1 million additional satellites, described in filings as supporting future AI data infrastructure.Current Starlink V2 small satellites weigh about 800 kilograms. Newer versions are expected to be heavier. The proposed V3 models will again be larger, closer in size to a small aircraft in terms of mass and structure.Each satellite will eventually re-enter. Using assumptions similar to previous atmospheric studies, the researchers estimated that a million satellites could release nearly a teragram of alumina into the upper atmosphere over time.
This figure comes alongside emissions from the rocket launches themselves, which already contribute to heating of the upper atmosphere and loss of ozone.The chemistry at those altitudes is complex. Small molecules can change how heat is absorbed and how ozone reacts. The models are still being improved.
The risk of in-orbit collision is already rising
Pressure is not just atmospheric. In low Earth orbit, avoidance maneuvers have become routine. The Outer Space Institute maintains a model known as the CRASH watch. She estimates that if active avoidance stops, a collision could occur within days.Experts have long warned of Kessler syndrome, a cascading effect in which debris from one collision triggers others. More satellites increase the statistical probability. Insurance markets are being watched closely. The same applies to national regulators.Not every satellite burns up completely upon return. Some debris reaches the surface. Recent assessments indicate that the probability of a casualty resulting from falling debris over a five-year cycle is high and may approach 40% as the towers expand. The danger extends to airplanes as well.
