Japan’s first female prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, is looking to cement her hold on power in a national election on Sunday, with polls pointing to a big win for her conservative party.
Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, could take about 300 seats. (Reuters)Here are some key developments to look out for:
Margin wins
Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, known as Isshin, could hold about 300 seats in the 465-seat lower house of parliament, last week’s vote showed. That would be a significant jump from the razor-thin majority he now controls.
If the coalition captures 261 seats, known as an absolute stable majority, he can control parliamentary committees, making it easier to pass legislation, including key budget proposals.
A supermajority of 310 seats would allow him to override the upper house, where his coalition lacks a majority.
If the vote goes all wrong and he loses his lower house majority, Takaichi has said he will resign.
Financial risk
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Takaichi’s election promise to help households cope with rising prices by suspending the 8% sales tax on food triggered a sell-off last month.
Investors expressed concern over how an economy with one of the developed world’s highest debt burdens would pay for an estimated 5 trillion yen ($30 billion) hit to annual revenues.
His comments on how he would implement those plans will be scrutinized by the same investors who fled Japanese government bonds and sent the yen into crisis mode. If he closes the market, Takaichi will not be able to count on the Bank of Japan’s help in controlling it, Reuters reported this week.
youth vote
Support for Takaichi, 64, is strongest among younger voters, not the older generation that has long formed the LDP’s electoral backbone, polls show.
His modest background and nationalist rhetoric struck a chord with a jaded youth hopeful that he could lead Japan out of a decade-long economic slump.
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A conservative who took inspiration from Britain’s Margaret Thatcher, Takaichi has harnessed the power of social media and become an unlikely fashion icon, with fans clamoring to buy his carry-on bag and pink pen.
Whether younger Japanese bother to go to the polls on Sunday could determine the size of his expected victory. In the October general election before he became prime minister, only 36% of 21- to 24-year-olds in the capital Tokyo voted, compared to 71% of 70- to 74-year-olds.
Beef with Beijing
A landslide victory in the escalating dispute with powerful neighbor China could give Takaichi renewed influence, current and former Japanese officials said, although Beijing showed no signs of backing down.
Weeks after taking office, Takaichi touched off the biggest dispute with China in more than a decade by publicly outlining how Tokyo might respond to a Chinese attack on Taiwan.
A stronger mandate could also accelerate Takaichi’s plans to strengthen Japan’s military, drawing further ire from Beijing, which has cast his efforts as an attempt to revive Japan’s military past.
The rise of the far-right
Fielding a record 190 candidates, the far-right Sanseito party could benefit, with polls suggesting it could win just two to about 15 seats.
It will build on last year’s upper house election, when the party broke through with fiery warnings about foreigners and attracted significant youth support.
While Sanseito will remain a small group seeking ties to US President Donald Trump’s MAGA movement, its rise has helped shift Japan’s political discourse to the right, as seen in other advanced democracies.
Weather warning
Another factor that could affect turnout is the weather for the first election since 1990, which will be held in mid-winter.
Record snowfall blanketed parts of northern and western Japan and even dusted the capital Tokyo on Sunday, causing minor traffic disruptions. Some remote polling stations will close early so that ballots can be taken to counting centers in time, public broadcaster NHK said.
Voter turnout in elections in Japan, which has been dominated by the LDP in the post-war era, is lower than in other developed democracies at around 55% in recent polls. (Reporting by Tokyo Newsroom; Writing by John Geddy; Editing by William Mallard)
