Japan’s conservative ruling party is poised to dramatically strengthen its grip on power after exit polls predicted a huge majority in Sunday’s lower house election.
According to an exit poll by public broadcaster NHK, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is expected to win between 274 and 328 of the 465 seats, well short of the 233 needed to regain the majority it lost in 2024. A coalition of its junior parties, the Japanese Alliance of 30, could win. 366 seats, NHK added.
Elections to Japan’s lower house of parliament, held on a freezing day, are seen as an early popular vote for a new prime minister, as many parts of the country are again battered by heavy snow. Sane Takaichi.
Takaichi, who Early elections Soon after becoming Japan First woman Prime Minister Last autumn, she vowed to resign if her coalition failed to secure a simple majority.
But she would not enjoy her party’s success for long. There are concerns over her handling of Japan’s public finances and her ability to defuse a dispute with China over the future of Taiwan.
Takaichi tried to appeal to voters with a $135 billion stimulus package aimed at easing the cost-of-living crisis, then promised to freeze an 8% consumption (sales) tax on food for two years — a ¥5tn ($30 billion) hit to annual revenue.
Her spending plans have rattled financial markets and caused currency volatility, prompting some commentators to question her policies as Japan’s debt is more than twice its GDP — the heaviest debt burden of any advanced economy.
After a whirlwind introduction to diplomacy — including meetings with Donald Trump and Xi Jinping late last year — Takaichi clashed with Beijing in November when she suggested she might turn to Japan. Participated in the military In the event of a Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan.
China urges tourists not to visit Japan – their advice observed – and young people should not study there, citing “security concerns”. The conflict disrupted cultural exchanges and even led to the end of decades.Panda Diplomacy”.
Takaichi refused to retract her comments It angered Beijingbut it played well with many voters.
Margarita Estevez-Abe, an associate professor of political science at Syracuse University, said a victory in Sunday’s election could give Takaichi room to mend Sino-Japanese relations.
“Now she doesn’t have to worry about any elections until 2028 when the next upper house elections are held,” Estevez-Abe said. “So the best scenario for Japan is that Takaichi kind of takes a deep breath and focuses on modifying the relationship with China.”
But if she follows through with a consumption tax cut, the market reaction will be swift and negative, according to some analysts.
If Takaichi wins big, she will have more political space to follow through on key commitments, including consumption-tax cuts,” said Seiji Inada, managing director of FGS Global Consultancy.
Snowstorm conditions in some areas hampered visits to the polling station in Sunday’s election, a first In the middle of winter For 35 years, it has been a test of endurance for many voters.
Kazushige Cho, a 54-year-old teacher, said he was determined to vote for the LDP despite the terrible weather. “She has shown strong leadership and will push various policies forward,” Cho said outside a polling station in a small town in Niigata Prefecture, where the snow had reached a depth of more than 2 meters. “I think things can change for the better.”
The weather, which is expected to contribute to low turnout, caused widespread disruption on Sunday, along dozens of train lines The transport ministry said services were suspended and 230 domestic flights had to be cancelled.
With four hours to go polling was 21.6% – 2.65 percent lower than the same time in the 2024 lower house elections, the Nikkei business newspaper said, citing the Ministry of Home Affairs.
Takaichi’s personal popularity – Especially with younger voters – The LDP’s fortunes have turned around since winning the race to succeed Shigeru Ishiba as party president in October.
Under Ishiba, the LDP and its then coalition partner Komeito They lost their majority Amid public outrage in both houses of Parliament a The slush fund scandal And the rising cost of food and other basics.
The party that has ruled Japan for the past 70 years has been helped by a fractured and uninspired opposition, as in previous elections.
The main opposition centrist Reform Alliance – formed weeks before by the two existing parties – is expected to suffer heavy losses on Sunday, leaving questions over its future.
The final tally will not be known until late Sunday. If the Takaichi-led coalition wins an absolute majority of 261 seats, it will control parliamentary committees, making it easier to pass the budget and other laws.
The 310-seat supermajority would allow the coalition to overtake the upper house, where the LDP-led coalition lost its majority in July last year.
