Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu (right)
Israel is increasingly concerned that the new understandings reached between the United States and Iran could effectively legitimize Tehran’s influence in Lebanon. The emerging agreement between MAGA President Donald Trump and Iranian officials could also limit Israel’s ability to act militarily against Hezbollah, Axios reports, citing Israeli sources.This diplomatic communication comes after months of military escalation and comprehensive conflict in the Gulf. But even as Washington and Tehran seek to stabilize relations, officials in Jerusalem fear the talks could reshape Lebanon’s security landscape in ways that favor Iran and restrict Israel’s freedom of action.These concerns stem from the agreements reached during the recent US-Iranian talks in Switzerland and the memorandum of understanding signed last week.
Israeli officials believe that Iran has succeeded in bringing Lebanon into the broader negotiations, securing protection for its ally Hezbollah at a time when Israel has spent months trying to weaken the group and reduce Tehran’s influence in the country.According to Axios, Israeli officials fear that the new framework will lead to increased scrutiny from Washington every time Israel seeks to carry out strikes in Lebanon.
They are also concerned about potential pressure from US President Donald Trump to withdraw Israeli forces from southern Lebanon before what they see as the Hezbollah threat is fully addressed.The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran reportedly commits both countries and their allies to ending hostilities, including in Lebanon, and preserving the country’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. The agreement was followed by several rounds of fighting, but the renewed ceasefire has largely held since Saturday.Iran has previously threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz and boycott the Swiss negotiations if the Israeli attacks continue. Once the talks began, Lebanon emerged as a major issue. The two sides reportedly agreed to establish a new “deconfliction cell” that includes Lebanon and mediators from Pakistan and Qatar to help maintain the ceasefire.Israeli sources told Axios that this arrangement weakens the understandings reached with the Biden administration in late 2024.
Under the November 2024 ceasefire agreement, Israel retained the right to act against imminent and emerging Hezbollah threats. Under the new circumstances, Israeli officials believe their operational freedom may be largely limited to imminent threats.They are also disturbed by the structure of the new mechanism. While the previous ceasefire monitoring framework included Israel, Lebanon, the United States and France, the new arrangement includes Iran, but not Israel, as a direct participant.
In addition, the previous mechanism focused on dismantling Hezbollah’s military infrastructure in southern Lebanon, while the new mechanism is primarily designed to prevent clashes between Israeli forces and Hezbollah.Axios reported that while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains concerned about the nuclear aspects of the US-Iran agreement, the Lebanon-specific provisions are currently causing greater concern within his government.One reason is internal politics. Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah remains a major issue ahead of elections scheduled for October.An Israeli source told Axios, “Bibi is hysterical about this matter,” referring to Netanyahu by his nickname.According to the report, Netanyahu recently asked his close friend Ron Dermer to use his connections within Trump’s circle to influence discussions regarding Lebanon. The same source claimed that Dermer’s efforts contributed to the Social Truth post in which Trump threatened action against Iran if it failed to rein in Hezbollah.A US official confirmed to Axios that Dermer participated, and said that US negotiators briefed him several times during the talks in Switzerland.“We were transparent with them,” the official said.On the Lebanese side, President Joseph Aoun is said to be open to the new mechanism as long as the United States remains at its center. Axios reported that Vice President
J.D. Vance
Trump envoy Jared Kushner briefed Aoun on the arrangement during a phone call on Monday.American officials sought to reassure Israel that the new framework does not marginalize its interests.“Israel is not outside the mechanism, because the United States is in it,” a senior US official told Axios. “We are so close and coordinated that a direct channel between the US and Iran on Lebanon would only benefit Israel.”Not everyone in Washington is convinced of this. Senator Lindsey Graham, one of Netanyahu’s closest allies in Congress, criticized this initiative.“The deconfliction mechanism in Lebanon that the Trump administration envisioned does not include Israel, and in my view it is a big misstep,” Graham told Axios.On Monday, Netanyahu issued a joint statement with Defense Minister Yisrael Katz and IDF Chief of Staff General Eyal Zamir, in which he announced that the army would continue to “act decisively to neutralize threats to our soldiers and citizens, destroy terrorist infrastructure, and maintain the security zone in southern Lebanon.”It is worth noting that the statement did not go so far as to confirm that Israel maintains complete freedom of action inside Lebanon.Asked about Netanyahu’s concerns, Trump replied: “I solve problems, and I solve problems very quickly – including with Bibi.”Another round of direct talks between Israel and Lebanon is expected to take place at the US State Department, mediated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Discussions center around a possible phased Israeli withdrawal from parts of southern Lebanon in exchange for the deployment of the Lebanese army to prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding its presence.Graham said that new understandings between the United States and Iran could complicate those efforts.He said, “Expecting anyone to reach an agreement between Israel and Lebanon at the same time that Iran is demanding that Lebanon be included in its negotiations with the United States is highly unrealistic.”The senior US official disagreed, telling Axios that Rubio’s team was fully aware of the new arrangement and said it could reduce tensions and create better conditions for diplomacy.The official said, “This creates a greater chance for the success of the Israeli-Lebanese talks. If Israel and Lebanon work together and reach an agreement, they will have a stronger hand to force Hezbollah to disarm.”But for now, the prospect of a comprehensive agreement between Israel and Lebanon leading to Hezbollah’s disarmament appears remote, highlighting the challenge facing diplomats even as the ceasefire largely holds.
