Getting elections right in India is not easy at all. Voter moods can shift quietly, alliances can confuse the math, and last-minute fluctuations often go undetected. However, in the midst of this uncertainty, Axis My India got its forecasts right for Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
The Tamil Nadu Assembly elections were held in a single phase on April 23, and recorded a historic turnout of 84.69%, the highest since the state’s independence. The previous highest turnout was 78.29% in 2011. Meanwhile, Kerala recorded a turnout of 78.27% in 140 constituencies.
Tamil Nadu: discovering early political transformation
In Tamil Nadu, Axis My India’s forecasts stood out because they identified a major shift in the state’s political landscape. A poll of voters exiting the polls indicated a significant rise for the party of the actor-turned-politician, Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK), expected to obtain between 98 and 120 seats.
Read also | Pinarayi Vijayan is trailing the BJP and its Congress rivals in Dharmadam. A third hat trick unlikely?
This was important because it challenged the long-standing dominance of the Dravidian heavyweights. The poll indicated a close race, with the current DMK alliance estimated at 92-100 seats.
Kerala: Read the undercurrent correctly
In Kerala, the agency’s forecasts again reflected a strong understanding of voter sentiment. Opinion polls predicted the return of the United Democratic Front led by the Congress Party, and it was estimated that it would win between 78 and 90 seats in the 140-member council.
Read also | Who is VS Babu, the giant killer who leads against MK Stalin in Kolattur?
Meanwhile, it expected the ruling Left Democratic Front to lag behind by 49-62 seats. This was notable given that the LDF had been in power for a decade, making the shift more difficult to predict.
The data shows that the Congress-led United Democratic Front is leading in the state, followed by the Congress-led United Democratic Front in the state. Election Commission data shows that LDF’s Pinarayi Vijayan is leading in Dharmadam by 1,090 votes against Congress vice-president Abdul Rashid.
Interestingly, the poll revealed multiple sentiments among voters. While the Pinarayi Vijayan-led alliance was expected to lose, he remained the most preferred choice for the chief minister’s post among the participants.
At least 33% wanted it to continue, highlighting the divide between leadership preference and vote choice.
Kerala has a total of 140 seats, which means a party or alliance needs at least 71 seats to form the government. According to most opinion polls, the United Democratic Front is expected to get between 70-90 seats, while the LDF is expected to get around 49-65 seats.
