Tomato prices rise due to weather conditions
NEW DELHI: Tomato prices are rising again after extreme heat damaged the summer crop in key producing regions, tightening supplies during the lean season. Experts expect prices to remain stable during July and August, as delaying fall planting is likely to delay the arrival of new quantities.
Retail tomato prices rose 16% over the past month and 23% over the previous year, according to data from the Ministry of Consumer Affairs. Average retail price $42.5 per kg on June 30.
Pressures are also evident in wholesale markets, where prices rose 18% month-on-month and 28% year-on-year, suggesting that higher procurement costs may continue to push retail prices higher in the coming weeks.
“Prices in major centers have risen by 30%-50% due to excessive heat that hit the crop in February-March. Moreover, rising crude oil prices due to the West Asia war are adding to the logistics cost,” said Sanjay Gupta, MD & CEO, National Commodities Management Services Ltd (NCML).
The current supply pressure comes at a crucial stage in the tomato production cycle. Tomatoes are a 60-90 day crop grown over three seasons. The fall crop represents about 45% of the annual production, followed by the spring crop, which contributes 30-35%. The summer crop, grown during February and March, replenishes supplies during the lean period from June to August before fresh kharif crops reach the market.
This year’s summer crop was damaged by excessive temperatures in key growing areas, resulting in lower yields as the market entered the seasonal lean period. Delayed kharif planting due to erratic monsoons has raised concerns about the timing of the arrival of new arrivals.
In its second advance estimate, the government revised tomato production for 2025-2026 down to 21.5 million tons from the previous estimate of 22.7 million tons, a decrease of about 5%.
Final production may be lower than revised estimates, said Ram Gopal Yadav, head of research at agLabs. “Prices usually rise between June and August because heavy rains disrupt transportation and supplies,” Yadav said. “This year, prices rose even before widespread rains, indicating a bigger supply problem.”
According to Yadav, retail tomato prices could rise to… $90-100 per kg during July and August if supplies remain limited and monsoon-related disturbances worsen.
Industry experts said delayed monsoon rains could further support prices by slowing kharif planting and delaying the arrival of new supplies.
“In the medium term, tomato prices are expected to remain steady during July and August. Moreover, July is a weak seasonal period before early autumn supplies kick in, which should continue to support prices,” said Bhushan Sharma, Director, Crisil Intelligence.
However, a repeat of the sharp increases seen in previous years is unlikely as the staggered arrival of the summer crop helps plug supply gaps, Sharma said.
“The uptrend is expected to be more moderate than the sharp monsoon spikes typically seen during this period, as sporadic summer crop arrivals, especially from southern states where farmers have replanted after heat stress, are likely to supplement supplies to some extent,” Sharma said.
According to Crisil, wholesale tomato prices in major summer crop producing states like Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh are currently trading at a low level. $1,200-1,800 per 100 kg compared to approx $2220 per 100 kg in delhi mandis.
Tomato prices have reached their highest levels $300 per kilogram in several parts of the country in 2023 after an early heatwave reduced crops and heavy rains in July disrupted transportation. The Consumer Affairs Department then stepped in by purchasing tomatoes from major producing states, including Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharashtra, for distribution in major consumption centres.
