Although the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had expected a marginally early onset of monsoon, its extended forecast now shows largely dry conditions over Kerala for the period between May 28 and June 4 and a very marginal improvement during the period from June 4 to June 11.
Rainfall is expected to increase after June 11, according to the latest ERF (Extended Range) forecast.
There are two factors that are likely to cause a delay or onset of a weak monsoon over Kerala.
There is a cyclone developing over the western Pacific Ocean which is seen pulling significant moisture away from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. There is also a cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep region resulting in not much rainfall falling on the land surface over Kerala.
The monsoon in Kerala usually begins around June 1. The IMD had forecast on May 15 that this year’s southwest monsoon is likely to hit Kerala on May 26 with a model error of ±4 days.
If 60% of the 14 stations available after May 10, including Minicoy, Ammini, Thiruvananthapuram, Punalur, Kollam, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Kochi, Thrissur, Kozhikode, Thalassery, Kannur, Kudulu and Mangalore, report rainfall of 2.5 mm or more for two consecutive days, the Kerala start will be declared on the second day, provided deep westerly winds persist and cloudy or overcast conditions persist. Overcast.
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During the period from May 28 to June 3, conditions are likely to become favorable for further advance of the southwest monsoon over the remaining parts of the southern Arabian Sea, some southernmost parts of peninsular India, most parts of the southwestern Bay of Bengal, the remaining parts of the southeastern Bay of Bengal, some other parts of the central Bay of Bengal, some parts of the northeastern Bay of Bengal, and northeastern India, according to the IMD forecast.
The prevailing heatwave is likely to ease into an extreme heatwave in many parts of northwest India, the IMD forecast on Thursday.
Isolated heavy rain is likely over northeastern India and neighboring eastern India over the next 2-3 days and over southern peninsular India on Thursday.
Moderate to severe thunderstorm activity with the possibility of high wind speeds over northwest India, central India and eastern India during until May 31.
“There is likely to be a weak start and not much progress will be seen after that. There is pre-monsoon rainfall. But there is no weather system that will continue to surge ahead,” said Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Climate and Meteorology at Skymet Weather.
The southwest monsoon advanced further into some other parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, some parts of the Lakshadweep region, some other parts of the southwest, southeast and east Bay of Bengal, remaining parts of the Andaman Sea and some parts of the west-central Bay of Bengal on Wednesday, according to the IMD.
Currently, neutral ENSO conditions are evolving toward El Niño conditions over the tropical Pacific. The latest MMCFS (Monsoon Mission Forecast System) forecast indicates the development of El Niño conditions during the southwest monsoon season.
