The strength of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance rose to 314 seats after 20 TMC legislators joined the Indian National Citizens Party, and in a sign that they will support the NDA, all eyes are on the two sets of legislation that are at the top of the ruling regime’s agenda.
There are clear indications that the Narendra Modi government may try to reintroduce legislation to increase the strength of the Lok Sabha from 543 to 815 seats and launch the delimitation process on the basis of the 2011 decennial census.
The NDA is also likely to seek to push through another favored bill of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on simultaneous elections, which is under consideration before the Joint Committee of Parliament.
But the NDA managers need to support more numbers in both houses of Parliament before that – no easy task, especially in the Lok Sabha, where the alliance is 46 seats short of the two-thirds mark required for such legislation.
According to Article 368, the Constitution Amendment Bill must be “passed in each House by a majority of the total members of that House and by a majority of not less than two-thirds of the members of that House present and voting.” While the NDA can easily meet the first condition, it must find a way to achieve the second condition.
In the Rajya Sabha, the NDA has 148 legislators. It could go as high as 155 seats after the biennial elections and by-elections in West Bengal after three TMC legislators resigned from the Upper House. Since the two-thirds majority mark in the Rajya Sabha is 164, the ruling side needs support from the BJP (5 MPs) and YSR Congress (7 MPs) to ensure majority.
Even with 20 TMC members turning into BJP allies, the NDA needs 46 more MPs to breach the two-thirds majority mark of 360 in the Lok Sabha, which now has 540 legislators with three vacancies.
The Congress criticized Union Home Minister Amit Shah, accusing him of trying to get a two-thirds majority in the Lok Sabha. “The troubled Central Home Minister – a disgrace to the dignity of the office once held by Sardar Patel – has brazenly dragged Indian democracy to new lows. He has hatched a conspiracy to engineer the illegal defection of 20 TMC MPs and orchestrate their complete and completely dubious merger with a political entity that almost no one has heard of. This entity is ostensibly registered, but unrecognised, and was formed only three years ago.” The second largest party in the NDA, even ahead of the established and veteran TDP and JD(U) In fact, TDP and JD(U) should protest against such covert maneuvers and the despicable way their standing is being undermined,” Congress leader Jairam Ramesh tweeted.
“This bizarre maneuver is part of the Central Home Minister’s strategy to garner a two-thirds majority for the NDA in the Lok Sabha. As long as he remains in this position, decency, decency and devotion to constitutional values and principles will continue to erode and will remain under threat every day,” he added.
Any potential support from the DMK, which has 22 Lok Sabha MPs, and which has emerged from the India Bloc of opposition parties, could bridge this gap to 24 seats. The DMK’s exit from India came after the Congress decided to support Joseph Vijay’s TVK government, ending its partnership with the Dravidian party.
To be sure, the DMK has so far strongly opposed the delimitation bill that allocates more seats to north Indian states while maintaining the existing ratio between states. “The DMK is in principle opposed to the delimitation bill in its current form. We have to see what the changes are,” DMK MP and former Communications Minister A Raja told the media last week.
The DMK leadership also indicated that there will be internal discussions in the party before any decision is taken in this regard.
Under the plan, Uttar Pradesh will get 120 Lok Sabha seats – a 50% increase from the current 80 seats – but Tamil Nadu will get 59 seats from its current tally of 39 seats. The DMK bypassed the All India Bloc alliance on June 8, but tweeted: “…- On issues raised by other parties listed in this meeting which are detrimental to the welfare of the nation, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam will always raise its voice.”
“The NDA cannot reach the magic number overnight. In the Lok Sabha, the government needs to bridge a wide gap to pass any bill to amend the Constitution,” said a BJP lawmaker, requesting anonymity.
The easiest way for the NDA is to enter into a tacit understanding with the Samajwadi Party, which has 37 MPs. But the SP remains a major component of the India bloc, and voted against demarcation bills in April.
The One Nation, One Election Bill, which was introduced in the Lok Sabha in December 2024, has been referred to a joint committee for review.
The 20 TMC MPs have joined a little-known party, NCPI, and pledged support to the NDA. “We will support Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah,” said one of them, NCPI president and MP Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar.
