A single day of extreme heat is associated with an estimated 3,400 excess deaths across India, while a heat wave lasting five consecutive days could lead to nearly 30,000 additional deaths, according to a new study.
The research, conducted by Piyush Narang and Ashok Gadgil of the Indian Energy and Climate Center at the University of California Berkeley, sought to address the lack of accessible, region-level data on heatwave-related deaths in India, according to the news agency. PTI.
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Heat-related deaths found in multiple cities
To estimate the impact at the national level, the researchers adapted findings from a multi-city study of heat-related deaths in 10 Indian cities and applied them to regions across the country.
Excess deaths refer to the number of deaths that occur above what would normally be expected based on historical trends.
The study, published in the journal Frontiers in Environmental Health, combined district-level mortality data from the civil registration system with population projections for 2024 to estimate deaths associated with one-day and five-day heatwaves.
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3,400 deaths nationally, 30,000 in five days
“We estimate that a single day of extreme heat causes approximately 3,400 excess deaths nationally; a five-day heat wave causes approximately 30,000 excess deaths,” the researchers wrote.
These results come as the heatwave continues to become an intense heatwave across northern, central and eastern India.
Temperatures remained above 45 degrees Celsius in parts of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana in recent days.
What are the most affected areas?
The analysis found that Uttar Pradesh alone could cause about 8,100 excess deaths during a five-day heatwave. Districts, including Ahmedabad, Jaipur and Surat, are expected to record more than 250 excess deaths each during a single heatwave.
Researchers also identified a significant mismatch between mortality burden and economic capacity. The states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat together account for 66% of the country’s expected excess deaths during the five-day heatwave, even though they contribute only about 29% of India’s GDP.
The findings have important implications for planning for heat adaptation and resilience in India, the researchers said.
“The 2.3x GDP disproportionality documented here provides a quantitative basis for arguing that federal adaptation investment, including funding under the National Disaster Management Authority and the National Climate Change Action Plan, should be weighted toward high-burden, low-GDP states rather than allocated in proportion to population or administrative capacity,” they wrote.
100 areas most at risk
The study also found that the 100 most vulnerable areas, home to nearly a third of India’s population, account for 44% of the excess deaths expected during the five-day heatwave.
Moreover, the authors said, “The risk of heatwave mortality is not only proportional to population size but is structurally concentrated in states with lower economic output[namely]those with the least financial capacity to invest in adaptation.”
They added that the region-level estimates are consistent with a growing body of epidemiological and modeling evidence suggesting that South Asia, especially India, faces increased exposure to heat-related deaths.
(with PTI inputs)
