Uday Kotak, a financial industry pioneer, said India needs to prepare for permanent changes amid shifting geopolitics and energy shocks. Central world order The Kotak Securities boss added that the US-Israel war on Iran is moving towards a “tribal” mentality and Indian companies need to think in terms of national strength in the long term.
“We have not seen the impact in the last two months of the crisis “The Middle East (West Asia) war in terms of energy price transmission,” Kotak said, speaking at the Annual Business Summit 2026 in Delhi.
“It’s coming, and it’s coming in a big way, and consumers haven’t felt the pressure at all,” he said. “The oil companies have the ability to absorb the shocks, and that’s a lot of money.”
“Prepare for paranoia”
Kotak said India should avoid complacency and be more cautious. “My view is that we should prepare for paranoia before the event,” he said, adding: “We should prepare for the worst.”
He warned that India’s heavy dependence on imported oil (more than 85% of its needs) makes it difficult for India to import oil. The economy is vulnerable to global price shocks, which can affect inflation, the rupee, and overall financial stability.
“Be prepared for difficult times, instead of waiting for the shock to hit us,” he said. He added: “The shock is coming. I do not think you are very far from the shock unless the Iran war stops tomorrow morning, and we have been hoping for that since February 28.”
What did the government say?
Federal Minister of Petroleum Hardeep Singh Puri had earlier spoken about this during the summit. He said that oil marketing companies are currently losing $1,000 crore per day to keep pump prices stable as global crude oil prices rise from $65 to nearly $115 per barrel.
Lower recovery rates are expected in the first quarter $1.98 million crores. He added that although the last 70-75 days have been difficult due to global turmoil, India has managed to maintain uninterrupted power supply.
Kotak added that India needs stronger financial discipline at the government and corporate levels. According to him, the country’s economic strength will increasingly depend on how effectively it uses its resources and builds resilient companies over time.
He also said that companies in India are overly focused on short-term performance cycles. “The ability to take a 3- to 5-year view is much needed, and it is missing,” he said, calling on companies to focus less on stock price movements and short-term incentives.
Enough supplies amidst the war
Despite the rising costs, the government has moved to reassure the public. Following the fifth meeting of the Informal Group of Ministers headed by Defense Minister Rajnath Singh, the government asserted that India maintains a comfortable buffer space.
Crude oil and natural gas inventories cover approximately 60 days of demand and LPG supplies provide approximately 45 days of rolling cover. The country’s foreign exchange reserves amount to about 703 billion dollars.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to call on the public for austerity. Speaking in Gujarat and Hyderabad, the Prime Minister asked citizens to reduce fuel consumption and adoption Working from home practices, and stopping buying gold to ease the financial burden on the country.
What did the opposition say?
Opposition leaders intensified their criticism. Congress leader Jairam Ramesh interpreted the Prime Minister’s remarks in Hyderabad as a warning of tougher measures in the future. He said: “There may be a phase of strict measures to reduce costs, including raising fuel prices, on the horizon, and the atmosphere is being created to make them more acceptable.”
Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav questioned the timing of the government’s appeals, asking why the issue of economic pressure came to light only after the recent elections in four states and a union territory. “During the elections, BJP leaders took thousands of charter flights. Were those planes flying on water?” he asked.
