Private meteorological firm Skymet Weather said Tuesday that monsoon rainfall was likely to be “below normal” at 94% of the long-period average, with a margin of error of +/-5%.
India saw higher than normal rainfall last year, an increase of 7.9% compared to normal. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said northwest India recorded 747.9 mm of rainfall last season. This was the highest rainfall since 2001 and the sixth highest rainfall since 1901. East and northeast India recorded the second lowest rainfall since 1901 last year.
Monsoon is the lifeline of the Indian economy. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, 51% of India’s cultivated area, representing 40% of production, depends on rainwater, making monsoons critical.
Skymet said there is a 40% chance that the monsoon this year will be “below normal” (between 90% to 95% of LPA), a 30% chance of drought (below 90% of LPA), a 20% chance of being normal (between 96% to 104% of LPA), and a 10% chance of being above normal (between 105% to 110% of LPA). The average LPA for the four monsoon months (June to September) is 868.6 mm.
“The difference is below normal, at 90-95% of LPA. The 2026 monsoon was below par and now holds the same,” Skymet Weather said in its previous forecast in January 2026.
Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet, said that after a year and a half of La Niña conditions, the Pacific Ocean is ripe for El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
“The coupling of the tropical Pacific Ocean to the atmosphere is now stronger than before. El Niño is expected to occur during the early phase of the southwest monsoon, and will continue to grow stronger through the fall of the year. The return of El Niño may herald a weaker season. The second half of the season is likely to be more turbulent and erratic.”
El Niño years usually bring weak monsoons and harsh summers to India.
Along with ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has the potential to stimulate monsoon circulation. “A strong positive IOD event during the season has the potential to partially avert the ill effects of El Niño. The IOD is expected to be strictly neutral or positive. It will contribute to a good start to the monsoon. However, chances of a weak monsoon during the second half of the season cannot be ruled out. The monsoon rainfall distribution will be at risk of variability and bias,” Skymet said.
Central and northwest India may face rainfall deficit. June will be stable, but rainfall is likely to weaken from July to September.
In June, rainfall is likely to reach 101% of the LPA (June’s LPA is 165.3 mm), 95% of July’s LPA (July’s LPA is 280.5 mm), 92% of August’s LPA (August’s LPA is 254.9 mm) and 89% of September’s LPA (September’s LPA is 167.9 mm), according to Skymet Weather forecasts.
According to IMD, neutral El Niño conditions prevail over the tropical Pacific Ocean. The latest forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Climate Prediction System indicate that neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions are likely to persist into June.
The possibility of El Niño conditions developing is gradually increasing. There is a 62% chance of El Niño occurring from June to July and August. There is an 80% chance that El Niño will continue into August, September and October.
