Taking stock of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) stint in power, chief psychologist and founder of Axis My India Pradeep Gupta on Wednesday said the party currently at the center can remain in power as long as its performance in governance does not see a sharp decline.
Pradeep Gupta, whose Axis My India exit poll correctly predicted many election outcomes, drew a parallel with the long period of dominance that Congress once enjoyed, and Gupta suggested that Indian politics is witnessing another cycle of single-party dominance.
Pradeep Gupta Predictions for BJP
Giving an estimate of how many years the BJP is likely to remain in power, Pradeep Gupta said the party’s current phase of political dominance, which began in 2014, is likely to last “at least 20 years”, news agency PTI reported.
The psychologist, whose exit poll was the only one to correctly predict a victory for actor Vijay-led TVK in Tamil Nadu, said the ruling party’s position would remain secure as long as its performance in governance did not weaken significantly.
Citing the example of Congress, Pradeep Gupta explained how there is a “threshold in politics”.
“Earlier, the Congress had ruled continuously till 1977. After that, it started facing difficulties. In those days, we were talking about a political generation lasting about 20 years. This 20-year cycle will continue even now,” Gupta was quoted as saying on Wednesday, suggesting that the BJP could likewise remain the central pole of Indian politics for an extended period.
“BJP will now have to deliver a superlative performance.”
The future of both the ruling alliance and the opposition largely depends on the performance of the incumbent government, he said, adding that the BJP will now have to “outperform”.
“After receiving such a huge mandate, expectations from the BJP have also increased. So the BJP and the NDA will now have to deliver a superlative performance,” he said.
“Until their performance becomes weak or bad, they will continue to win and the competitor will continue to lose,” Gupta added.
Gupta believes that Congress has faced the consequences of what he describes as “legacy issues” linked to perceptions of past mismanagement, making its political recovery a longer process.
“Even if you are talking about 2029, that means about 15 years (of Congress being out of power). I feel it may take at least another five years for them to convince the entire country,” he was quoted as saying.
At the same time, Gupta noted that political dominance has also contributed to raising public expectations.
“When you reach great heights, there is also a tendency to come down later. The BJP has also reached that stage where expectations from it have risen,” he said.
