As voting for the second and final phase of the West Bengal Assembly elections concludes on Wednesday, attention is turning towards the polls, which are expected to begin after 6:30 pm today.
As the high-stakes competition continues, the big question remains: How reliable are these early forecasts in 2021?
The final stage of voting covered 142 seats in seven districts. While there were reports of violence and vandalism in parts of the state soon after voting in the first phase began on April 23, the final phase was described as largely peaceful.
What happened in the 2021 polls?
In 2021, forecasts were sharply divided, with agencies providing mixed results.
Wings The All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) is expected to comfortably retain power with 158 seats, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is estimated at 115 seats. Republic Poll-CNX It flipped the script, giving the BJP an advantage of 143 seats and putting the TMC on 133.
My hub is India He proposed tougher elections, with the TMC projecting between 130 and 156 seats and the BJP between 134 and 160 seats – effectively suggesting that either party could cross the 148-seat majority mark in the 294-member Assembly.
Actual results tell a different story
When the results were announced, the result differed significantly from most expectations. The TMC won a landslide victory, winning 215 seats, while the BJP was limited to 77 constituencies.
The elections, held in eight phases, saw a strong challenge by the BJP against Banerjee, while the CPI(M), Congress-ISF alliance added a third angle in several constituencies but failed to make a significant impact.
Assembly elections 2026
The ongoing elections have once again witnessed a sharp showdown, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeking to expand the BJP’s footprint in the state. For the BJP, a win here would mark a major advance in eastern India.
For Banerjee, another win would mean a fourth consecutive term, cementing her position as one of the key regional leaders capable of taking on the BJP at the national level.
The campaign has been characterized by sharp exchanges, with issues such as the review of voter rolls – especially the special intensive review – taking center stage, often overshadowing traditional concerns such as jobs and inflation.
The leading candidates in this round include Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari, both of whom are contesting from Bhabanipur constituency, making the seat one of the most closely watched.
The BJP is aiming to build on its performance in 2021, when it won 77 seats, while an unusually high voter turnout of 92.7% has raised the stakes, with both camps watching closely to see how voters vote.
The vote count and results of the 2026 Constituent Assembly elections will be announced on May 4.
