NEW DELHI: There is a 62% chance of El Niño appearing in June-July-August and an 80% chance of it continuing in August-September-October, the India Meteorological Department said in a monsoon forecast on Tuesday, a forecast that portends pain for India’s agricultural sector, which is also likely to face difficult conditions due to constraints on fertilizer supplies due to the West Asia war.
The Indian Meteorological Department said in its pre-monsoon forecast that “the majority of models” show that the El Niño phenomenon will take hold starting next July, in reference to the possibility mentioned by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
El Niño events, characterized by warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, often lead to drought-like conditions. Low rainfall during the monsoon season from June to September increases demand for fertilizer, as farmers use more nutrients in an attempt to protect crops.
Analysts say adequate rainfall is crucial for farm production and rural income, and helps contain inflation, which is already facing upward pressure from rising commodity prices linked to the West Asian crisis.
India relies on imports of natural gas – a key raw material for domestic fertilizer production – as well as several types of fertilizers to meet demand. These supplies were disrupted after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, which led to a significant decline in imports.
However, some studies indicate that there is no direct relationship between El Niño events and drought. However, the El Niño phenomenon in 2009 caused India’s worst drought in three decades, severely impacting farm incomes.
“There is a clearly observable pattern during El Niño years, when peaks and troughs in the deviation of rainfall from the long-period average are reflected in corresponding fluctuations in agricultural growth,” economist D K Srivastava said.
Between 1952 and 2019, there were 15 years of moderate to very strong El Niño conditions, according to Srivastava’s research. In 11 of those years, agricultural growth turned negative.
Despite these risks, India has recorded strong grain production in recent years, with production reaching a record high of 357 million tonnes in 2024-25.
“Availability of adequate fertilizers and extent of El Nino effect will be the key factors determining the outlook. Demand for urea could see a sharp rise,” said Rahul Chauhan, an analyst at iGrain Ltd, an agricultural commodity services company.
