For many years, the direction of political power continued to largely alternate between two coalitions in Kerala. It was the Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by Prime Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s CPI(M) or the United Democratic Front (UDF) led by the Congress that voted the people to power by rotating every five years. The trend was broken by Vijayan’s Left Democratic Front, which retained power, winning 99 of the 140 seats in 2021, the first time in four decades that a coalition had won the assembly elections in Kerala for the second time in a row.
A similar challenge faces the LDF this time too, with the Congress-led United Democratic Front once again becoming its only major opponent, making the contest two-cornered. Meanwhile, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is hoping to make some progress in the state.
It remains to be seen whether the curse of alternating power in Pinarayi Vijayan or Kerala will return again in Kerala.
Vijayan drops term limit in Kerala
The CPI(M) released its list of 75 candidates after the Election Commission of India (ECI) released the poll schedule in Kerala a few days ago. And other parties in the ruling coalition
The Communist Party of India and the Kerala Congress (M) have announced 24 and 12 candidates respectively.
According to some reports, the Kerala government has put a cap in 2021, putting a cap on twice-sitting legislators from entering the presidential elections. However, this limit has been dropped by Pinarayi Vijayan this time, who is contesting from Dharmadam Assembly constituency in Kannur district. Before this, he was elected MLA from Kothuparamba constituency three times and once from Thaliparamba.
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In his nomination papers, Vijayan declared the value of movable and immovable assets $1.01 lakh crore, which is slightly lower than the figure announced in 2021 before the elections.
Anti-Incumbency, Insurgency Challenges Vijayan Party
The opposition Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) appears to have posed a major challenge to Pinarayi Vijayan by supporting four CPI(M) candidates who have reportedly filed nominations as independents, citing their discontent with the party.
G Sudhakaran in Ambalappuzha, V Kunhikrishnan in Payyanur, T K Govindan in Taliparamba and PK Sasi in Ottapalam are the leaders of the CPI(M) rebels who are now supported by the UDF, and this rebellion, coupled with the anti-incumbency trend in Kerala, could pose a major threat to the CPI(M). Sudhakaran’s rebellion may hurt the party’s chances the most. While his association with the CPI(M) has lasted for decades, the four-time MLA is contesting the elections in Ambalapuzha constituency against CPI(M) MLA H Salam.
While the leader claims he felt “humiliated and neglected” within the Communist Party of India (Maoist), the party has taken disciplinary action against him, alleging that he worked against the party’s candidate in Ambalapuzha during the 2021 elections.
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Two other rebels are contesting the seats of Payyannur and Taliparamba, the Communist Party of India’s stronghold in northern Kerala.
By supporting these rebels, the Congress-led United Democratic Front is trying to hurt Vijayan’s chances in some of the big strongholds of the CPI(M).
Although Pinarayi Vijayan broke the ‘alternating power’ curse in 2021, repeating the same feat and retaining power for the third time in a row will be a bigger challenge, given Kerala’s history of anti-incumbency.
