NEW DELHI: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday revised its monsoon rainfall forecast downwards – from 92% of the long-period average issued in April to 90% – and pegged a 60% probability of a deficient season, meaning there is a better than even chance that total rainfall will fall below the threshold considered even below normal.
Average rainfall for the June-September season, calculated over the period 1971-2020, is 87 cm – if forecasts hold true, this would represent the lowest monsoon rainfall in 11 years. The forecasts carry a model error of ±4%.
The IMD also assigned a 24% chance of below-normal monsoon (90-95% of LPA), 14% of normal (96-104%), 2% of above-normal monsoon, and zero of excess. Combined, there is an 84% chance of below normal rainfall or worse.
Two developments since the April forecast have pushed this revision downward. El Niño is now expected to arrive earlier and be more intense than previously estimated. “We can expect weak El Niño conditions to emerge as early as June,” Ravichandran said. Currently, El Niño-neutral conditions are shifting toward El Niño over the tropical Pacific, with the latest projections from the IMD Monsoon Mission Climate Prediction System and other climate models indicating that El Niño will develop during the monsoon season itself.
The agency added that El Niño conditions are likely to develop into a moderate category during the monsoon season, and into a strong category after the monsoon.
Equally important is the disappearance of the IOD buffer. The Indian Ocean dipole — which, in a positive phase, could partially offset the suppressive effect of El Niño on the monsoon by warming the western Indian Ocean and pulling moisture toward India — is currently in a neutral state and is likely to remain so during the season, the IMD said. This removes the mitigating factor that had earlier provided some relief.
Nearly half of India’s cultivated area lacks access to irrigation, and monsoon winds feed 91 natural reservoirs that provide power generation, industry and drinking water. This season comes at a time when farmers are already facing a potential shortage of fertilizer supplies due to the war in West Asia.
Meteorologists also warned that below-normal rainfall could lead to challenges for agriculture, water availability, hydropower generation and ecosystem sustainability, with increased risks of drought, heat stress and pressure on drinking water resources.
Officials explained that the central estimate of 90% is at the threshold of deficiency, a convergence that requires context. “Forecast probability is not the only factor. We have issued 90% LPA forecasts based on the total amount of rainfall we are likely to receive during the season. So, we are looking at dynamic factors as well,” said M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences.
“The problem is not just the overall reduction in rainfall, but the way rainfall is distributed. Delays in rainfall, along with dry periods that may occur in between, will be the most critical issues. Crops can handle dry spells of about one week. Beyond that, the soil is unable to support them. The overall reduction in rainfall will increase our dependence on irrigation. Insufficient rainfall will also prevent groundwater recharge,” said Dr GV Ramanjaneyulu, Executive Director, Center for Sustainable Agriculture.
The previous assumption that June rainfall would be relatively unaffected was also invalidated. The IMD now forecasts below-normal rainfall for the country as a whole in June, at less than 92% of LPA, a significant shift from the April picture. Below normal monthly rainfall is very likely over most parts of the country, except in parts of northwest India, northeast India, the southern peninsula and isolated pockets in central India.
Spatially, the acute deficit in northwest India is expected to be less than 92% of the LPA. The core region of the monsoon – the rain-fed agriculture belt across central India – is also expected to be less than 94% LPA. Central and southern peninsular India faces similar below-normal results. The situation is expected to be normal in Northeast India alone (94-106% of LPA).
The beginning itself is now in doubt. The IMD had forecast on May 15 that the monsoon would reach Kerala on May 26, six days earlier than the normal date of June 1. This timeline has been pushed back: IMD Extended Range forecasts now show largely dry conditions over Kerala between 28 May and 4 June, with only marginal improvement between 4 and 11 June. Rainfall is expected to increase only after June 11.
There are two factors behind the delay. A cyclone developing over the western Pacific Ocean is pulling significant moisture away from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Separately, the cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep region diverts rainfall over the ocean rather than the land surface over Kerala. “We expect the monsoon to gradually advance to more parts of the Arabian Sea and the tip of peninsular India over the next week. Most of the rain is now falling over the ocean and not on the mainland. So we have not announced the start of the monsoon over Kerala yet,” Ravichandran said.
June will also be hotter than previously expected. The IMD has forecast that heatwave days will be higher than normal in many parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh, and in isolated areas of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Some of these areas are expected to record about five to six days of heat waves in June, compared to three normal days. “These areas are normally expected to witness three days of heatwaves. But we expect two or three additional days of heatwaves in June,” said M Mohapatra, Director-General of the International Institute for Management Development. Heat wave days are expected to be below normal in Rajasthan and Jharkhand.
ICRA’s analysis warns that a weak monsoon combined with disruption in fertilizer supplies will severely impact agriculture outcomes in FY27, with agricultural value added expected to grow by less than 1.5% – against an estimated 2.4% in FY2026 – with a rise in minimum kharif production of 0.1-8.8% providing only limited support.
The non-crop sector – livestock, forestry, fishing and aquaculture, which accounts for 38-39% of agricultural value added – is expected to prevent a complete contraction. Current reservoir levels remain good, above averages from a year ago and historical averages. Weak agricultural production and rising global commodity prices amid conflict in West Asia pose another negative risk to rural demand.
State governments and district administrations have been advised to ensure operation of cold shelters, availability of safe drinking water, and health monitoring and emergency response systems are on standby. Older adults, children, outdoor workers, and those with pre-existing health conditions are especially at risk from prolonged heat exposure.
