Middle East Tensions: Will Stock Market Open Lower on Monday? Analysts warn of volatility as oil prices rise –

The stock market is expected to react negatively when trading resumes, with analysts warning that rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could severely impact investor sentiment and lead to a volatile start to the week, according to market experts quoted by PTI.The United States and Israel attacked Iran on Saturday, while Iranian state media confirmed early Sunday that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been killed in the attack, sharply raising the geopolitical risks.Market participants said the extent and duration of the conflict will determine how deep and long-lasting the impact on stocks will be. Aside from geopolitics, investors will also track macroeconomic data, global market signals and foreign investor activity during the holiday-shortened trading week, with markets closed on Tuesday for Holi.

Santosh Meena, head of research at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said sentiment was already fragile after the weekend surge.“For an oil-importing economy like India, the continued rise in crude oil prices poses risks to inflation, fiscal balance and interest rate cut expectations. This external shock has emerged at a technically weak moment for the market,” Meena said.He added that markets are likely to open with a cautious to negative bias amid geopolitical uncertainty and rising crude oil prices.

Investors will meanwhile react to domestic catalysts including Q3 GDP data and monthly auto sales figures, while upcoming IIP and PMI readings will shape expectations around economic momentum.“Globally, major economic releases from the US and China, along with the trajectory of crude oil prices, will influence risk appetite. The trend of FII flows will remain the main driver of the index movement in the near term,” Mina said.Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 2.87 percent to $72.87 a barrel, reflecting growing concerns in the energy market.Highlighting the broader economic repercussions, Manoranjan Sharma, chief economist at credit rating firm Infometrics, said the conflict could impact global stability.“Escalating tensions between the US, Israel and Iran escalated sharply on February 28, 2026, significantly impacting global energy security and economic stability,” Sharma said, adding that rising energy prices are already creating inflationary pressures on India.VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, warned that crude oil prices remain the main risk factor.“The impact in the near term will be negative. The price of crude oil has risen, and if the price of crude remains high for a long period of time, our trade balance and balance of payments will be affected because we import about 85 percent of our oil needs,” he said.He added that the market’s path in the medium term will depend on how long the conflict continues.

“The market will react very negatively,” Vijayakumar said.Analysts also noted that markets ended last week under pressure. The BSE Sensex fell by 1,527.52 points or 1.84 per cent, while the Nifty fell by 392.6 points or 1.53 per cent amid geopolitical concerns and weakness in technology stocks, said Ajit Mishra, senior vice president of research at Religare Broking Ltd.Investors will closely monitor domestic indicators such as PMI data for manufacturing and services, industrial production figures and monthly auto sales for signs of resilient demand, said Ponmudi R, CEO, Enrich Money.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, opinions regarding stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times Of India)