Gold and silver are expected to take cues from developments in the ongoing US-Iran talks this week, with analysts predicting a largely flat trend for gold prices while silver may continue to outperform amid geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices.Investors are also likely to track a series of economic indicators from the US, including GDP data, housing numbers, consumer confidence numbers and personal consumer spending (PCE) inflation prints, as markets look for signals about the next move for Federal Reserve policy.“Gold price momentum next week looks sideways, while silver still looks positive as the focus will once again be on peace negotiations between the US and Iran to end the war,” said Pranav Mir, Vice President, EBG – Commodity and Currency Research, JM Financial Services Ltd.Trading activity in local commodity futures markets will be curtailed on Thursday morning due to I.D. Al-Bakri.In MCX, gold futures ended the previous week at Rs 1.58 lakh per 10 gram after making marginal gains, while silver futures settled lower at Rs 2.71 lakh per kg.“Gold traded in a range-bound manner last week, registering marginal gains of around 0.40% in the MCX index to close near Rs 1,58,670 per 10 gram,” said Jatin Trivedi, Vice President Research Analyst – Commodities & Currencies, LKP Securities.
He pointed out that crude oil prices witnessed significant profit-taking during the week and corrected nearly 7% from their recent highs, which eased concerns about inflationary pressures globally.“Meanwhile, the rupee rebounded from weaker levels of 97 against the US dollar to consolidate near 95.70, limiting the upward momentum in domestic gold prices despite stable international bullion trends,” Trivedi added.In international trade, Comex gold futures ended the week down 1% at $4,523.2 per ounce.
Silver futures also fell, falling nearly 2% to $76.20 an ounce.“Gold prices moved in a consolidation range over the past few sessions, but ended the week with a marginal loss. Prices were steady amid no new direction in the market – be it on the economy front or the US-Iran war front,” Mir said.According to analysts, the uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical situation continued to keep the markets on edge, especially with statements issued by both Washington and Tehran changing frequently.US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the agreement between the United States and Iran aimed at reducing tensions in the Gulf region and reopening the Strait of Hormuz is close to completion.In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the deal was “largely negotiated” and only the final formalities remained.However, Iranian media has questioned Trump’s comments about fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz, noting that Tehran will continue to control the key waterway.Analysts said the contrasting positions on both sides are likely to keep bullion prices sensitive to any new headlines emerging from the region.Meanwhile, market participants are also expected to monitor Federal Reserve officials’ comments after Kevin Warsh officially succeeded Jerome Powell as head of the US central bank on Friday during a period of geopolitical tensions, market volatility and persistent inflation pressures.