GLASGOW: Brexit supporters celebrate in George Square in Glasgow, England, as Britain leaves the European Union on Friday, January 31, 2020. Britain officially leaves the European Union on Friday after a grueling political period that has bitterly divided the nation since the 2016 Brexit referendum. (AP/PTI)
Ten years after Britain voted to leave the European Union, the Brexit debate remains more heated than ever as questions over economic growth, immigration and Britain’s global standing continue to divide the country.On June 23, 2016, 52% of voters supported leaving the European Union, resulting in Britain’s biggest political and economic transformation since World War II, according to the Associated Press. Although Britain’s exit from the European Union officially took effect years later after lengthy negotiations, its consequences are still under discussion.
Economic promises meet reality
Brexiteers say Britain will thrive outside the EU, regaining control over policy making and striking new trade deals around the world.But economists say the expected economic boost has not materialized.Businesses still face customs procedures, border checks, certifications and other non-tariff barriers when trading with the EU, which remains Britain’s largest trading partner. Several trade deals championed by Brexiteers, including one with the United States, have yet to be reached.Experts estimate that the British economy is between 4% and 8% smaller than it would have been if the country had remained in the bloc.
“Brexit has made the UK economy smaller than it could have been,” said Jonathan Portes, a professor at King’s College London.“The impact was not a sudden collapse, but rather a gradual and cumulative decline in trade, investment and productivity,” he wrote in an article published in the UK in a Changing Europe think tank.Brexiteers say the project should be judged over decades, not years, and say greater control over domestic politics will ultimately outweigh the short-term economic disruption.
Immigration is at the heart of the debate
One of the core promises of the Brexit campaign was to tighten immigration controls.While immigration from EU countries has fallen sharply, the number of arrivals from non-EU countries has increased following changes to visa rules designed to address labor shortages in sectors such as healthcare and aged care.Net migration has since fallen from more than 900,000 in 2023 to 171,000 last year.However, public anger has increasingly focused on asylum seekers arriving on small boats across the English Channel.
The issue has become one of the most controversial political debates in Britain even though it represents only a small portion of total immigration.
Brexit has reshaped British politics
The referendum also transformed the political landscape in Britain.The Conservatives, who have spent years fighting divisions over Europe, are out of office in 2024 after 14 years in power. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labor government also struggled to win over voters, while support for the UK’s Reform Party, led by Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage, rose.At the same time, public opinion appears to be changing.According to Ipsos polls, 52% of Britons support returning to the European Union, while 33% oppose the idea. The polling firm also found that 48% believe Brexit went worse than expected, compared to just 9% who think it went better.Nearly half of respondents said they would support holding another referendum on EU membership.
Can Britain reverse course?
Despite changing public sentiment, reversing Brexit remains politically difficult.The Labor government ruled out a return to the European Union or a return to the bloc’s single market, choosing instead to “reset” relations with Brussels with a focus on reducing trade friction.Recently, Andy Burnham, seen as a potential future Labor leader, rejected proposals for Britain to reconsider EU membership.“I am not suggesting that the UK should consider returning to the European Union,” Burnham said.“I respect the decision that was taken in the referendum and it will undermine everything I said about strengthening democracy if we do not respect this vote,” he added.A decade after the referendum, Brexit may be legally complete, but its economic, political and social consequences continue to shape Britain’s future.