The forecast for the tropical Pacific has changed significantly over the past month, with climate scientists now more confident that a particularly strong El Niño will arrive later this year.
While these events are part of a natural climate cycle, their effects are rarely confined to the Pacific Ocean. Changes in ocean temperatures can alter rainfall, drought, storms, and heat patterns over large parts of the world, sometimes affecting crops, water supplies, and public health at the same time. The latest forecasts indicate that the upcoming event could be among the most powerful on modern records, prompting governments, relief organizations and climate experts to pay close attention.Although the exact outcome will depend on how conditions evolve over the coming months, the forecast has changed enough that many forecasters are starting to prepare for impacts that could extend beyond individual weather events.
Forecasters say a strong El Niño could appear by late 2026
The latest seasonal outlook from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center indicates that El Niño is likely to develop over the coming weeks before intensifying during the second half of the year.
Current forecasts give an 82% chance of El Niño conditions developing between now and July. Looking ahead, forecasters now estimate a 65% chance the event will reach the strong or very strong category between October 2026 and February 2027, the weather service’s National Climatic Prediction Center reported.Very strong El Niño events are generally associated with sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean rising by at least 2°C above long-term averages.
Events reaching this level are uncommon, and only a few have been recorded since reliable observations began.
The return of the El Niño phenomenon may lead to droughts, floods, and weather changes
El Niño forms as part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, a naturally recurring pattern that alternates between warmer and cooler conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean every few years.When ocean water temperatures rise dramatically, the atmosphere responds. Precipitation patterns change, jet streams move, and weather systems develop differently across continents.
Some areas suffer from prolonged drought, while other areas receive unusually heavy rains. The consequences are often seen in agriculture, fisheries, water management and disaster response, and not just in temperature records.The world is currently moving out of ENSO neutral conditions, with ocean observations suggesting that the shift has already begun.
Scientists warn that the coming El Niño could amplify human-caused global warming
The recent El Niño event, which lasted from mid-2023 until early 2024, added to global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions and contributed to exceptionally high global temperatures.Climate analysts predict that the same combination could unfold again if the next event strengthens as expected. Because El Niño releases additional heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere, average global temperatures often peak during or shortly after major events.This raises the possibility that 2027 could surpass previous global temperature records if the event reaches the upper limit of current projections.
Scientists point out that the natural climate cycle is now operating in a world that is already much warmer than during past El Niño periods, making extreme heat more likely.
Experts say the upcoming El Niño could match the infamous 1877 event
Some atmospheric scientists believe the developing event has the potential to rival the largest El Niño episodes documented since the late 1800s.The often cited benchmark was the strong El Niño of 1877, which coincided with widespread droughts and crop failures in many areas.
These conditions contributed to the global famine of 1876-78, one of the deadliest human disasters in recorded history.Modern societies have very different infrastructure, transportation systems, and food distribution networks, making direct comparisons difficult. However, climate specialists warn that severe disruptions to agriculture and water supplies are still possible where communities are already facing economic or political pressures.
El Niño’s biggest impacts can be felt on farms, food, and water.
Not all countries will be equally affected by the El Niño phenomenon, but in general this natural phenomenon poses a threat to the food production process. For example, some places lack sufficient rainfall during crop growth, while other places experience floods.All of the above issues may have an impact on global food markets, especially if many countries fail to harvest their crops.
If food prices rise, countries that already suffer from food shortages and are affected by armed conflicts will suffer most.Experts researching climate changes have raised the issue of water scarcity and the health of people living in the region experiencing abnormal climatic conditions.
Bushfires, storms and broader economic costs
The impact of El Niño extends beyond agriculture. Different parts of the world are often experiencing increased risk of wildfires, shifts in tropical cyclone activity, and changes in marine ecosystems that support commercial fisheries.The economic consequences can be significant. The strong El Niño phenomenon during 1997 and 1998 was associated with global losses estimated at tens of billions of dollars, reflecting damage caused by floods, droughts, storms, and disruptions to industries that depend on stable weather.Scientists stress that individual disasters cannot be attributed solely to the El Niño phenomenon, but that the climate pattern increases the likelihood of some extreme phenomena occurring in areas already exposed to it.
