For decades, scientists believed that a 90-year life expectancy was a distant milestone that no country would be able to reach anytime soon. Then a landmark study published in The Lancet challenged this assumption.
The researchers predicted that South Korean women born in 2030 could live an average of 90.8 years, making them the first population group in recorded history expected to cross the 90-year mark. This finding not only placed South Korea ahead of traditional longevity leaders like Japan, but also indicated that improvements in health care, nutrition and public health could push human lifespan further than many experts previously thought.
Lancet study behind South Korea’s longevity milestone
This prediction comes from a large study published in The Lancet in 2017 by an international team led by Professor Majid Ezzati from Imperial College London. The researchers analyzed future life expectancy in 35 industrialized countries using a sophisticated predictive approach known as a Bayesian ensemble, which combined the outputs of 21 separate statistical models.Their results indicate that South Korean women born in 2030 will have a life expectancy of about 90.8 years.
According to the study, there was a 57% chance that the country’s female life expectancy would exceed the 90-year threshold by 2030. The researchers also found a 90% chance that South Korean women would exceed 86.7 years, which at the time represented the highest female life expectancy ever recorded anywhere in the world.
Why do South Korean women live longer?
The researchers did not attribute South Korea’s longevity gains to any single factor.
Instead, they identify a set of social, economic, and health care improvements that have changed the nation’s public health landscape over the past several decades.Professor Ezzati and his colleagues pointed to improvements in child nutrition, widespread access to health care, lower obesity rates than in many Western countries, lower average blood pressure levels, and the rapid adoption of medical technologies.
Together, these factors have reduced mortality rates across multiple age groups and helped more people survive into old age.One of South Korea’s biggest advantages is its National Health Insurance Service, which provides near-universal health care coverage. Unlike some countries where health outcomes vary sharply by income, many health improvements in South Korea have been relatively evenly distributed across society, allowing larger segments of the population to benefit.
A significant increase in just one generation
South Korea’s transformation has been unusually rapid by historical standards.In the mid-1980s, the average female life expectancy in South Korea was about 73 years. By 2010, he had risen to over 84 years old. Lancet forecasts point to another significant increase by 2030, which could add more than six additional years within two decades.Researchers attribute the previous gains largely to lower infant mortality, infectious diseases and malnutrition-related deaths.
As living standards improved, the country invested heavily in public health infrastructure, vaccination programs and maternal health care.More recently, improvements have come from delaying deaths from chronic diseases such as heart disease, stroke and some types of cancer. Advances in treatment, screening and prevention have allowed more South Koreans to live longer, healthier lives.
Breaking the 90-year barrier
One reason this study is so widely discussed is that it challenges conventional thinking about the limits of human longevity.Commenting on the results, Professor Ezzati said that many researchers previously believed that life expectancy would not exceed 90 years on average. The study suggested otherwise.“At the turn of the last century, many researchers believed that life expectancy would never exceed 90 years,” Ezzati said when the study was published.The researchers argued that continued improvements in healthcare, disease prevention and living standards could continue to raise life expectancy, even in countries that already enjoy some of the longest lifespans in the world.Their findings suggest that the often-discussed 90-year ceiling was not a biological limit but rather a milestone that could eventually be crossed.If women in South Korea become the first population group to live more than 90 years on average, the consequences will extend far beyond the demographic record books.Longer lives generally mean a greater number of older people, greater demand for health care services and greater pressure on pension and social care systems.
Governments may need to reconsider retirement ages, labor force participation, and the design of health care infrastructure.South Korea already faces many of these challenges. The country has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world and one of the fastest aging populations, creating a demographic transition that policymakers are closely monitoring.At the same time, longer life can also mean more years spent in good health, increased economic participation of older people and improved quality of life.
Is South Korea still on the right track?
The ninety-year figure remains just a prediction and not a confirmed result. Since the study was published, the COVID-19 pandemic has temporarily disrupted life expectancy trends in several countries, although South Korea has seen a relatively modest impact compared with many Western countries.The latest data continues to place South Korea among the longest-living populations in the world, with female life expectancy already reaching levels that would have ranked among the highest ever recorded just a decade ago.It remains uncertain whether South Korean women will cross the 90-year-old threshold exactly in 2030 or a few years later. But what seems increasingly clear is that the country has become the leading contender to achieve a feat that once seemed impossible.
