World Cup 2026: Only three scenarios in which Messi and Ronaldo could finally face each other ‘for the last time’

A record-breaking sixth FIFA World Cup for both Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo could finally lead to the only meeting football has never seen before: a World Cup showdown between the sport’s main rivals.

Both Argentina and Portugal arrive in North America in encouraging form after winning their previous friendlies of the tournament, with Argentina beating Honduras 2-0 and Portugal beating Chile 2-1. While Messi is recovering well from a minor hamstring strain, Ronaldo is fully fit and expected to lead Portugal’s challenge.The prospect of a showdown between the two icons carries added significance because despite defining an era in football nearly two decades ago, they have never faced each other on the sport’s biggest stage.

Their rivalry has spanned leagues, continents and competitions, yet the FIFA World Cup remains the only major tournament in which their paths have not crossed in a competitive match.This could finally change in 2026. With Ronaldo approaching 41 and Messi approaching 39, both are widely expected to feature in the final World Cup finals. As a result, the expanded tournament provides what may be the last chance for football’s most prestigious rivalry to have a World Cup title.

However, whether this dream match becomes a reality depends on a very specific series of results, knockout paths and qualification scenarios that unfold across FIFA’s new expanded 48-team system. Before exploring these possibilities, it is worth understanding how the tournament is structured, because the format itself is what makes a potential meeting between Messi and Ronaldo more achievable and more complex than ever before.

How is the 48-team World Cup going?

The 2026 tournament, hosted by the United States, Canada and Mexico, will expand from 32 to 48 teams, completely changing the pace of the competition.Instead of eight groups, there are now twelve groups, ranked from Group A to Group L, with each group containing four teams. The draw placed Argentina in the tenth group alongside Algeria, Austria and Jordan, while Portugal was placed in the tenth group with Colombia, Uzbekistan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.From these twelve groups, the path forward proceeds in two layers.First, the live part: The teams that finish first and second in each group automatically qualify for the knockout stage. This represents 24 teams.Then comes the part that was not present in previous World Cups. All third-placed teams in the tournament are compared on points, goal difference and goals scored, with the top eight also qualifying.

This brings the total to 32 teams qualifying for the knockout rounds.

From here, the tournament becomes a successive elimination stage, starting from the round of 32, then moving to the round of 16, the quarter-finals, the semi-finals, and finally the final. The team that makes it all the way will now play eight matches instead of seven, reflecting the expanded structure, extending the tournament overall to 104 matches.This format is important because it creates multiple entry points into the knockout stage, which is where a Ronaldo-Messi meeting becomes possible.

The weight that both teams carry until 2026

Argentina arrive as defending world champions after lifting the trophy at Qatar 2022, a moment that reshaped Messi’s international legacy after years of near misses that included defeat in the World Cup final and three losses in the Copa America finals before kicking off in 2021. Since then, Argentina have added another Copa America title and head towards 2026 with continuity, depth and a squad built around their captain.

But Portugal’s story was different. Ronaldo, the all-time top scorer in men’s international football with 143 goals, won the European Championship and two UEFA Nations League titles, but the World Cup remained elusive.

Portugal’s best result in the Ronaldo era came in 2006, when they reached the semi-finals, and since then they have been eliminated in the round of 16 twice, in 2010 and 2018, eliminated at the group stage in 2014, and reached the quarter-finals in 2022, where they were eliminated by Morocco with Ronaldo largely used as a substitute in the knockout.

Individually, Messi played 26 World Cup matches and scored 13 goals, while Ronaldo participated in 22 matches, scoring eight goals. Both are expected to participate in their sixth World Cup, and Messi has not officially confirmed his participation yet.

All this context lies behind the simple fact that they are now in two separate groups, Argentina in Group 10 and Portugal in Group 6, meaning any meeting can only happen once the knockout rounds begin.

Expectations and possibilities in the group stage

Argentina are widely seen as strong favorites to top Group 10, with projections placing the odds of finishing first at around 75% to 77%, reflecting their status as defending champions and the relative balance of the group which also includes Austria, Algeria and Jordan.

Austria is the main contender, with an estimated 20% to 22% chance of winning the group.

Portugal, seeded in Group K, are also expected to top their group, with a squad that still includes Ronaldo alongside players such as Bruno Fernandes and Joao Felix. According to leading betting sites, Portugal are favorites to finish top of the group at the 2026 World Cup, with an implied probability of around 65% to 71%, although Colombia are seen as a real threat after a strong qualifying campaign in South America, led by Luis Diaz, James Rodriguez and Davinson Sanchez, along with other key figures such as John Cordoba, Jefferson Lerma and Richard Reus.

Family Fact: Why They Can’t Get Together Early

Since both Argentina and Portugal were in first place in Pot 1 during the draw, FIFA structured the bracket so that teams from the same classification pot were separated into different tracks. In simple terms, this means they cannot meet in the group stage, and will remain apart until certain points in the knockout stages depending on how they finish.Their placement in Groups J and K also places them on opposite sides of the arc, which is why their meeting depends heavily on specific final positions.

Scenario 1: Both of them win their group, and clash in the quarter-finals

If Argentina finishes first in Group 2 and the round of 16.Argentina’s path in this scenario would begin by facing the Group H runner-up in the Round of 32, followed by a Round of 16 match against the winner of a tie between the second-placed teams in Groups D and G.By contrast, Portugal will face one of the third-placed qualifying teams in a round of 32 match, before proceeding to the round of 16 against the winner of a match involving the winner of Group B.Only if both of them make it through these two knockout rounds will the bracket align with Ronaldo vs. Messi in the quarter-finals.

Scenario 2: Both are in second place, at the start of the Round of 16 match

If both teams finish runners-up in their groups, the structure will bring them together very early, with a potential Round of 16 showdown on July 6 in Arlington, again assuming both win their opening knockout matches.In this case, Argentina will face the winner of Group H in the round of 32, while Portugal will face the runner-up in Group L, which includes teams such as England, Croatia, Ghana and Panama.The key difference here is that a runner-up finish compresses the schedule, creating a track where the meeting occurs just one round after the initial knockout stage.

Scenario 3: Positions are split, only the final position remains

If one of the two teams wins its group while the other takes second place, the bracket separates them completely until the final on July 19 in New Jersey.In this configuration, they are placed on opposite sides of the knockout draw, meaning they would have to progress through each round, round of 32, round of 16, quarter-finals and semi-finals, without slipping up, in order to meet.This is the longest and most difficult road, but it is also the one that will lead to the most symbolic finale: a World Cup final between two players whose rivalry defined an era.

Wildcard variable: third place qualifier

The expanded format introduces another layer of uncertainty through the top third-place teams.If Argentina or Portugal finish third but still qualify among the eight best third-placed teams, their exact position in the knockout stage cannot be determined until all group matches have been completed, as this ranking is based on points, goal difference and goals scored in all groups.This makes any meeting between Ronaldo and Messi in this scenario unpredictable, as their paths will not become clear until after the end of the group stage.

Why does this World Cup look different?

For all the permutations and paths, the basic reality is simple. This will likely be the last time both players will be involved in a World Cup stage, and the structure of the 48-team tournament makes it possible, but not guaranteed, that they will finally meet.It will take Argentina performing to expectations, Portugal through a competitive group, and both teams handling at least one or two knockout rounds flawlessly, depending on the route.Only then does the bracket open up in a way that allows the competition to reach the stage it has always missed.