The southwest monsoon arrived in Kerala on Thursday, three days after its normal start date and five days later than expected in the IMD forecast, and is likely to cover most parts of India by the third week of June, although concerns remain over the volume of rainfall.
The monsoon usually arrives in Kerala around June 1. The IMD had forecast on May 15 that this year’s southwest monsoon is likely to hit Kerala on May 26 with a model error of ±4 days. The IMD also expects monsoon rainfall this year to reach 90% of the long-period average, which translates into a lower-than-normal monsoon. Worse still, the IMD said there is a 60% chance of weak monsoon, and rainfall is less than 90% of the LPA.
But its emergence in Kerala, a milestone in its progress, will bring some joy in a country where 51% of the cultivated area, accounting for 40% of production, depends on rainwater.
“During the last two days, convective clouds have increased over the south-eastern Arabian Sea. The depth of westerly winds over the south-eastern Arabian Sea extends to 4.5 km above mean sea level. The strength of westerly winds at lower levels is around 20-25 knots. Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall has occurred over Kerala during the last two days. Considering all the above conditions, the southwest monsoon blew over Kerala on June 4,” the release said.
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On Thursday, the monsoon advanced to the remaining parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, some parts of the west-central and east Arabian Sea, the entire Lakshadweep Islands, Kerala, Mahe, some parts of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, the remaining parts of the Comorin region, the southeastern Bay of Bengal and some other parts of the southwest, west-central, east-central and northeastern Bay of Bengal on Thursday, according to the Meteorological Office.
The northern limit of the monsoon passes through Mangalore, Uthagamandalam, Kodaikanal and Thoothukudi.
The IMD added that conditions are favorable for further advance of the southwest monsoon in some other parts of the central Arabian Sea, all of Goa, some parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, some other parts of Karnataka, remaining parts of Tamil Nadu, southwest Bay of Bengal, some other parts of the Midwest, Middle East, northeastern Bay of Bengal and some parts of northeastern states during the next two-three days.
“We expect a good rise over the next week. We can expect the monsoon to reach parts of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, southern parts of Andhra Pradesh, Goa, Konkan, parts of Maharashtra and north-eastern states. So things are looking good for the next few days,” said M Mohapatra, Director General of the Meteorological Department (IMD).
“Rainfall will decrease over Kerala this week. Otherwise, monsoon is likely to reach many parts including parts of northwest India by June 15-16,” said Mahesh Palawat, Vice President, Climate and Meteorology.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on June 2 that El Niño conditions are developing and are expected to affect global temperatures and precipitation patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather over the coming months.
A new WMO update on El Niño/La Niña indicates an 80% probability of El Niño occurring during the period from June to August 2026. The probability of El Niño conditions continuing until at least November is close to or greater than 90%. Most forecast models indicate it will be at least moderate – and perhaps strong, the World Meteorological Organization noted.
Rainfall is likely to be below normal during the June-September 2026 southwest monsoon season in most parts of South Asia, with the strongest signal over central regions, according to a seasonal forecast released by the World Meteorological Organization on April 30. The map released by the World Meteorological Organization showed below-normal rainfall over almost all parts of India.
