The Indian Meteorological Department said on Tuesday that the monsoon is likely to reach Kerala around June 4, three days behind schedule. On May 15, the IMD forecast that the monsoon was likely to start over Kerala on May 26, with a model error of ± four days.
The monsoon advances north from Kerala, usually in waves, covering the entire country around 15 July. It represents the transition from scorching temperatures. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, 51% of India’s cultivated area, representing 40% of production, depends on rain, making monsoons critical. With 47% of the country’s population relying on agriculture for their livelihood, abundant monsoons are linked to a healthy rural economy.
“Conditions are favorable for further advance of the southwest monsoon into some other parts of the southwest and southeastern Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep Islands, some parts of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and some other parts of the southwest, midwest, central east, northeastern Bay of Bengal and remaining parts of southeastern Bay of Bengal around June 4,” the IMD said on Tuesday.
Heavy to very heavy rain (7-20 cm) is very likely in Kerala over the next six to seven days, the IMD said. Scattered heavy rains are expected in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka during the same period. Moderate to severe thunderstorm activity with gusty wind speeds up to 40-50 kmph is likely in parts of northwestern, central and eastern India and southern peninsular India during the week.
The IMD extended range forecast shows largely dry conditions over Kerala between May 28 and June 4. A very marginal improvement was expected from June 4 to June 11.
A cyclone developing over the western Pacific Ocean, which was seen pulling significant moisture away from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, and a cyclonic circulation over the Lakshadweep region were possible factors delaying or triggering the onset of a weak monsoon in Kerala.
Last week, the IMD revised its monsoon rainfall forecast downward — from 92% of the long-period average issued in April to 90% — and pegged a 60% chance of a deficient season, meaning there is a better than even chance that total rainfall will fall below the threshold considered even below normal.
The average low elevation for the June to September season, calculated over the period 1971-2020, is 87 cm. If forecasts are correct, this will be the lowest rainfall in the monsoon season in 11 years.
El Niño conditions, fueled by unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, are developing and are expected to affect global temperatures and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather in the coming months, the World Meteorological Organization said on Tuesday.
A new WMO update on El Niño/La Niña indicates an 80% chance that El Niño will occur during the period from June to August 2026. There is a 90% chance that it will continue until November. Most forecast models indicate it will be at least moderate and possibly strong. In India, El Niño is associated with harsher summers and weaker monsoons.
