The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) board is scheduled to meet on May 22 to consider transferring a potential record surplus to the government for FY27, with economists estimating the payout in the range of Rs 2.7 lakh crore to Rs 3 lakh crore, ET reported, citing people familiar with the matter.The expected surplus transfer, commonly referred to as Reserve Bank of India (RBI) dividend, to the government comes as the Center has already budgeted Rs 3.16 lakh crore in FY27 from SOE dividends and transfers from the central bank.Last year, the RBI transferred Rs 2.68 lakh crore to the government, which was 27 per cent more than the previous year.Gains from foreign exchange interventions and investment income are likely to support the payment, while the final amount could rise further if the RBI opts for a lower emergency reserve, economists said.The final amount will be decided when the Reserve Bank of India’s board meets in Mumbai on Friday.RBI profit remittances have emerged as an important source of non-tax revenue for the government in recent years. The sharp decline of about 10 percent in the value of the dollar and the rise in gold prices by about 60 percent during the fiscal year 2026 also improved the accounting profitability of the central bank.The surplus transfer is expected to provide fiscal support and help contain pressure on the government’s deficit position at a time when a weak rupee and rising import costs remain a concern.
The payment will be determined under the revised Economic Capital Framework (ECF), which requires the Contingency Risk Reserve (CRB) to remain within 4.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent of the RBI’s balance sheet. In fiscal year 2026, the Reserve Bank of India has maintained the central interest rate at the upper limit of 7.5 per cent.“We estimate a surplus transfer of Rs 2.8 lakh crore, assuming a CRB of 6.5%,” said Sakshi Gupta, chief economist at HDFC Bank, as quoted by ET.Barclays expects the transfer to be Rs 3 lakh crore, while Emkay has estimated a range of Rs 2.8 lakh to Rs 3.4 lakh crore depending on the level of reserve held by the central bank.However, IDFC First Bank chief economist Gaura Sengupta expects payments to remain broadly in line with last year.“Earnings from foreign exchange transactions are expected to be lower, with dollar sales totaling $166 billion in FY26 (through February) compared to $399 billion in FY25. The historical cost of dollar purchases is around 84 in FY26 versus 82 in FY25, which remains below the current spot rate,” it said.“The RBI’s forward book was already large at the start of FY2026, which limited its ability to sterilize spot interventions. This led to a decline in overall dollar sales during the year. The West Asia crisis is likely to increase dollar sales in March 2026, which is factored into the estimates,” she added.