The southwest monsoon is scheduled to hit Kerala six days earlier than usual on June 1. The Indian Meteorological Department has set the beginning of the monsoon on May 26.
According to the Meteorological Department, conditions are favorable for the monsoon to advance over parts of the South Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and Andaman and Nicobar Islands within 24 hours. Furthermore, heavy rains are expected along the southern parts of the West Coast on May 28.
However, despite the early start and forecast of heavy rains, it is uncertain whether the country will receive sufficient rain, given the onset of El Niño, which could undermine the season before it reaches peak intensity.
Read also | A “super” El Niño phenomenon will hit the Earth in the coming months; The world is preparing for extreme weather conditions
El Nino phenomenon and IMD monsoon forecasts “below normal”
The first phase of the Meteorological Department’s long-range forecast for this year has already predicted less than normal rainfall during the June-September season.
The IMD predicted an occurrence of 92% of the long-period average, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5%.
Experts say that an early start does not guarantee protection from the weak season.
In fact, in India, El Nino is associated with harsher summers and weaker monsoons.
“There is no correlation between the early onset of monsoon and the total amount of monsoon rainfall. In fact, there have been years when the monsoon arrived early but the rainfall was weak. It depends on how many low pressure systems form or how the surge develops because the monsoon moves in waves,” said Mahesh Palawat, Vice President, Climate and Meteorology at Skymet Weather.
What is El Nino? How did the monsoon affect India?
First, the name. The term El Niño originated from 17th-century Peruvian fishermen who noticed the appearance of unusually warm ocean currents off the Pacific coast of South America around December.
Because it peaks near Christmas, they named the phenomenon “El Nino de Navidad,” which translates to “The Christmas Child” in Spanish. Over time, the shortened usage, meaning “little boy,” refers to ocean currents that are warmer than normal in any given season.
This year, weather signals from the Pacific Ocean are on track to confirm the arrival of El Niño.
How it is built affects India
- During normal conditions in the Pacific Ocean, trade winds blow westward along the equator, carrying warm water from South America toward Asia.
- However, during an El Niño climate pattern, trade winds weaken and push warm water eastward, toward the west coast of the Americas, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
- This suppresses the moisture-laden winds that normally blow toward the Indian subcontinent, sometimes contributing to rainfall shortages.
- Scientists at the US Atmospheric Administration estimated the probability of the El Niño phenomenon appearing between May and July at 82%, and the event is likely to continue until next year. India receives nearly 70% of its annual rainfall during the monsoon season from June to September, raising concerns of a weaker monsoon.
Past cases
Many years of drought in India have coincided with El Niño events.
For example, the country experienced drought-like conditions, crop failures, and water shortages during the major El Niño event of 2015-2016. During these years, India recorded only 86% of normal monsoon rainfall, with Marathwada in Maharashtra experiencing a rainfall deficit of almost 40%.
Also in 2023, during El Niño, India saw a 36% rainfall deficit in August alone.
