It was clear by Monday afternoon that Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief Mamata Banerjee would not be sworn in as prime minister for a fourth time, given the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive lead in 184 of Bengal’s 294 seats.
The saffron wave was visible not only in the 152 seats that went to polls in the first phase, but also in the 142 seats in South Bengal where elections were held in the final phase on April 29. This was a clear indication that anti-incumbent sentiment, fueled by corruption allegations, has overshadowed all the strategies used by the TMC against the BJP, especially the efforts to brand central leaders like Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah. “Anti-Bengali” and “Bahiragato” (outsiders).
Corruption charges against senior TMC leaders in trust cases involving companies like Saradha and Rose Valley, corruption in appointment of government school teachers and civic body employees, and coal and cattle smuggling cases appear to have fueled the anti-incumbency campaign against the TMC.
“The factor of corruption and alleged arrogance of the junta leaders certainly played a big role,” said political scientist Midul Islam of the Center for Studies in Social Sciences. “At the same time, it must be taken into account that the polls were conducted without a large number of voters who were removed from the list during the special intensive review of the electoral register.”
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Islam seemed right because, for example, in Kolkata’s Rashbehari seat, TMC MLA Debasish Kumar, who was questioned by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) days before the elections in a case of alleged illegal land transfer, was trailing the BJP’s Swapan Dasgupta, a veteran journalist and former Rajya Sabha member.
In the latest state polls for 2021, the BJP won only 59 seats out of 152 in 16 districts where elections were held in the first phase on April 23, and only 18 seats out of 142 in seven districts, including Kolkata, where elections were held in the second phase.
The saffron camp claimed that the record turnout of 93.19% in the first phase and 92.67% in the second phase indicated the fall of the TMC although many argued that the high turnout was caused by the SIR which led to the removal of around 9.1 million names, including dead and absentee voters.
On the other hand, Banerjee claimed after the exit polls that the BJP had distributed false exit poll numbers indicating a landslide victory, and said that the high voter turnout indicates the return of the TMC.
Aware of anti-incumbency after being in power for 15 years, the TMC fielded 78 members of the Scheduled Caste (SC) community, 17 Scheduled Tribes (ST), 47 Muslims and 55 women (22 more than the BJP) hoping that Banerjee’s welfare schemes and monthly cash assistance schemes would work in its favour.
Although the TMC registered a landslide victory in 2021 by winning 213 seats against the BJP’s 77, the ruling party dropped 74 of these winners and allotted new seats to 15 MLAs. Only 135 MLAs contested for their old seats.
But none of them could save the situation. Almost all the TMC ministers were trailing their BJP rivals at 1:30 pm on Monday.
“People are fed up with the TMC, especially its local leaders who extort money from us every week,” said Tapan Maiti, a shopkeeper in Kolkata’s Ghariat Market.
