On April 2, while Suvendu Adhikari was on his way to file nomination papers for Bhabanipur seat in Kolkata, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, while leading the roadshow, made a prediction.
“Suvendu da came and said he wants to contest in Nandigram. I said go to Bhabanipur as well and defeat Mamata inside her house. Our victory is guaranteed if we win 170 seats but it can be achieved if we win in Bhabanipur. Mamata won the last election, but was defeated by Suvendu Adhikari. This year, Mamata will lose in all parts of Bengal as well as in Bhabanipur,” Shah said.
While the numbers seemed to prove Shah right on Monday evening, Adhikari, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief, and his colleague Mamata Banerjee in the House-turned-Noir cabinet emerged not just as her victors, but also as the front-runner for her seat in the state secretariat.
“Unlike the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP has not fielded any candidate from two assembly seats in recent history. For Adhikari, this was a test of his appeal and ability as an opposition leader,” a senior state BJP leader said on Monday evening. By 8:30 pm, the saffron camp had won or led the TMC in 208 of the 294 seats in Bengal.
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“Our party will hold a meeting tonight to select the chief minister. Adhikari is on the list. Some leaders have also suggested the names of Rajya Sabha member, state president Samik Bhattacharya and state vice president Agnimitra Paul, who won from Asansol Dakshin,” said a BJP leader, requesting anonymity.
Although the counting of votes for the Bhabanipur seat is still ongoing, Adhikari, who retained Nandigram in East Midnapore district for the third time, was confident. “A new dawn for Bengal Sonar (Bengal Golden),” Adhikari wrote on X.
The East Midnapore district leader, who held several portfolios in the Bengal government, resigned from the government and the Assembly in December 2020 to join the BJP. Shah had welcomed him at a rally.
Banerjee Adhikari fought in Nandigram in the 2021 state elections. She lost by 1,956 votes. This forced her to win a by-election in Bhabanipur months later to continue as chief minister. Although the TMC won 213 seats against the BJP’s 77, the Nandigram disaster became a talking point in Bengal.
“I will defeat Mamata again, this time in her seat,” Adhikari said in his last campaign in Bhabanipur.
Adhikari, despite being charged by the state police in nearly 300 cases since 2021, has not only spearheaded a series of high-profile campaigns and strengthened the party’s efforts to reach out to voters in TMC strongholds, but has also roped in other candidates across Bengal over the past two months, BJP leaders said.
“In 2025, Adhikari formulated the campaign strategy by publicly declaring that the BJP should focus on Bengal’s 70.54% Hindu population (as per 2011 census) and completely ignore the 27.01% Muslims. No leader has said that before. He also said in his campaigns that infiltration from Bangladesh has changed the demographic character of Bengal. This strategy has clearly paid off,” said a senior BJP state official. Janata, who also requested anonymity.
Adhikari’s prescription initially caused an uproar in the state unit but since January 2025 he has repeated the statement several times. “I say jo hamari saath, hum unki saath (we are with those who support us),” Adhikari said at the BJP state executive meeting in Kolkata on January 17, 2025.
Muslim voters play a decisive role in at least 120 of the 294 Bengal Assembly seats. The BJP won only 77 of them in 2021. The party fielded nine Muslim candidates but none of them won.
“In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, we got 38% votes,” he said at a rally in East Midnapore in January 2025. “These are all Hindu votes. If 10% of Hindus vote for us, we will oust Mamata Banerjee next year.”
The BJP did not field any Muslim candidate this time. However, by 6 pm on Monday, the potential Hindu consolidation of Hindu votes had helped the BJP achieve a comfortable lead in several seats with large Muslim populations, such as Malda, Murshidabad, Howrah, Kolkata and Birbhum.
