With Kerala exit poll forecasts missing, all pollsters have pretty much predicted a Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) to win, with the incumbent LDF occupying a distant second place.
Axis My India predicted that the United Democratic Front would get 78-90 seats, and the LDP between 49-62 seats. Matrez also expected an increase in the number of seats for the United Democratic Front, giving 70 to 75 seats. Matrez expected the ruling Liberal Democracy Party to win 60-65 seats, and 3-5 seats for the National Democratic Rally Party.
People’s Pulse expected the United Democratic Front to win 75-85 seats, and between 55-65 seats for the Liberal Democratic Party. The pollster gave the NDA between 0-3 seats. Meanwhile, P-Marq also gave the UDF preference of 70-75 seats, predicting 60-65 seats for the LDF and 3-5
Preferred CM, vote share predictions
Axis My India also released its Prime Minister’s Favorite forecast, and vote share forecast for alliances. According to the poll, the United Democratic Front is expected to get the highest share of votes at 44 percent, followed by the Liberal Democratic Front at 39 percent and the National Democratic Rally at 14 percent.
As for the preferred chief ministers in the state, incumbent Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan of the LDF received the highest votes with 33 per cent. Next in line was Congress V D Sathisan with 21 per cent, followed by “any UDF candidate” with 11 per cent.
Kerala voted in one phase on April 9 for the 140-seat Assembly elections, with the results expected to be announced on May 4. The current Left Democratic Front, led by the Communist Party of India, has been the ruling political alliance in Kerala since 2016. The other major alliance in the United Democratic Front is led by the Indian National Congress.
While the Pinarayi Vijayan-led government last year managed to break the four-decade pattern of alternating governments in the state, it remains to be seen whether he can achieve the rare historic feat of a third term. Vijayan is contesting from Dharmadam Assembly constituency in Kannur.
The LDF has in the past won a total of 6 elections out of 10 since the alliance was formed in 1980.
What are the results in 2021?
LDF made history in 2021 after being elected for a second consecutive term. The alliance won 99 seats, of which the Communist Party (Maoist) won 62 seats, while the United Democratic Front won only 41 seats.
The Liberal Democratic Front’s vote share was 45.43%, while the United Democratic Front’s vote share was 39.47%. The BJP-led NDA received a vote share of 12.4%, but was unable to win any seats. In 2021, Pinarayi Vijayan became the first Chief Minister of Kerala to be re-elected, marking the first time since 1977 that a ruling coalition had won consecutively in the state.
