As exit poll forecasts come out on Wednesday, exit polls predict victory for the incumbent Stalin-led Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) MK government in the 2026 Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu. However, some pollsters expected a surprise debut for Vijay and his party, Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam.
Despite the high-stakes election battle being waged between the DMK and AIADMK, all eyes were on actor-turned-politician Vijay and TVK in the elections.
While some pollsters predicted a good performance for TVK, others predicted a major role for the party. Axis My India predicted Vijay’s party to get 98-120 seats, and predicted TVK tied with DMK+ in vote share, with both getting 35 per cent. Kamakhya Analytics also gave TVK 67-81 seats, which, if proven true, gives Vijay a key role in forming the government in the state.
Other pollsters have given TVK good numbers, with P-Marq predicting the Vijay-led party will get 16-26 seats and Matrez predicting 10-12 seats. The JVC projected Vijay’s party to win 8-15 seats, while the Praja poll predicted a win of 1 to 9 seats. People’s Insight predicted 30 to 40 Assembly seats for TVK.
What about DMK, AIADMK?
All opinion polls predicted victory for the ruling DMK+ party in Tamil Nadu, with some giving it a slight lead and others predicting a comfortable win. Axis My India expects 92-110 seats for the DMK, and between 22-32 seats for the AIADMK. Expecting a win for the DMK+, Matrez predicted it would get 122-132 seats, while giving the AIADMK-led alliance 87-100 seats.
The P-Marq is expected to get between 125-145 seats for the DMK+, followed by the AIADMK-led NDA alliance with 65-85 seats. Similar projections were made by People’s Pulse, which gave DMK+ 125-145 seats, NDA 65-80 seats.
Breaking away from other polls, the JVC has projected 128-147 seats for the AIADMK-led NDA, and 75-95 seats for the DMK+. Kamakhya Analytics expects the AIADMK-led alliance to get 78-95 seats and 68-84 seats.
The main contest in the state was between the DMK-led alliance and the NDA. The DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) includes the Indian National Congress, Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK).
Meanwhile, the National Democratic Alliance leads the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, with the BJP and Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) as allies.
The overall voter turnout in Tamil Nadu, which voted in one phase on April 23, was 82.24 percent by 5 p.m., according to Election Commission of India figures. Voting in all 234 Assembly constituencies ended at six in the evening.
