The first poll forecasts for the 2026 Assembly election season have been released, and two prominent agencies – Matrice and People’s Pulse – have issued forecasts in all five election-bound states and the union territory of Puducherry.
While the two agencies broadly agree on Tamil Nadu, Assam and Puducherry, they are largely at odds over West Bengal – the single biggest battleground this election season.
If the Matrez numbers — the first exit poll forecast for the 2026 House elections — hold up on results day, the country is headed toward a dramatic May 4. The agency’s forecasts indicate a historic change of caution in West Bengal and Kerala, a comfortable retention for the DMK in Tamil Nadu, and a third consecutive term for the BJP in Assam. Puducherry forecast is not yet published.
Clearly the biggest story this evening is West Bengal.
He follows: 2026 live exit poll results
Bengali exit polls
The biggest story of the evening is West Bengal, and it comes with a major caveat: the two agencies couldn’t be more different.
Matrez expects the BJP to win 146-161 seats in the 294-member assembly – above the majority mark of 148 – with a vote share of 42.5 per cent, against 125-140 seats for the TMC with 40.8 per cent.
However, the People’s Pulse Party tells quite the opposite story, with the TMC expected to control 177-187 seats, with the BJP occupying second place with a margin of 95-110. The Left is expected to be at 0–1, the Congress at 1–3, and the BGPM at 1–2 according to Peoples Pulse.
If Matrez is right, this will mark the end of Mamata Banerjee’s 15-year grip on Bengal, and the most significant state-level upheaval in modern Indian political history. If People’s Pulse is right, Mamata is coming back with a landslide.
The election campaign in Bengal was shaped by battles over electoral rolls and citizenship, border security, women’s safety, employment, and anti-incumbency after a decade and a half of Trinamool rule.
The poll was conducted in the state in two phases on April 23 and 29, and recorded a huge voter turnout of over 90% and surpassed the 2021 record of 80.4%.
The wide discrepancy between the two agencies makes Bengal the most difficult outcome to predict in the May 4 election.
Tamil Nadu may stay with the DMK
In Tamil Nadu, both agencies agree on the return of the DMK, but diverge on the margins.
Matrez expects the DMK-led alliance to win 122-132 of the 234 seats at 40.3 per cent, while the AIADMK-led front will get 87-100 seats at 37.1 per cent, and TVK opens with 10-12 seats.
People’s Pulse paints a more conclusive picture for the DMK, putting it at 125-145 seats – with the much weaker AIADMK at just 65-80.
More importantly, the People’s Pulse Party gives TVK a higher tally of 18-24 seats, suggesting that Vijay’s party could emerge as a more important third force than Matrez expected.
The high-stakes battle was fought between CM MK Stalin’s DMK and Edappadi K Palaniswami’s AIADMK-BJP alliance. The state recorded the highest participation rate in the legislative elections ever, at 84.69 percent.
Kunj is set to win Kerala
Kerala is emerging with a change according to Matrez, who expects the Congress-led United Democratic Front to win 70-75 seats with 41.7 per cent – against the ruling LDP’s 60-65 seats with 39.5 per cent – ending Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s bid for an unprecedented third consecutive term. The BJP-led NDA is expected to get only 3-5 seats. Kerala recorded a voter turnout of 78.23 percent, the highest since 1987.
Assam and Puducherry
In Assam, the BJP-led NDA appears to be firmly in control of both agencies, although the divisions are different.
Matrez expects the NDA alliance to win 85-95 of the 126 seats.
The People’s Pulse breaks it down further: the BJP alone on 68-72, the Congress on 22-26, the AGP on 7-10 seats and the BPF on 8-9, taking the broader NDA comfortably past the majority mark at 64. The AIUDF is expected to get 3-5, the Raijor Dal on 1-2, and the minor parties on 0-1 each.
Prime Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is seeking another term, with the Congress choosing Gaurav Gogoi as its chief face. Assam recorded a record turnout of around 85 per cent on April 9.
In Puducherry, People’s Pulse expects AINRC to get 10-12 seats, BJP 5-6, and LJK 1-2, leaving the NDA likely 16-20 seats, close to the 16-seat majority mark.
On the opposition side, the DMK is expected to get 6-8 seats and the Congress on 1-3, with TVK on 0-1 and others on 1-2, indicating a tight contest with the ruling NDA under CM N Rangaswamy which maintains a slim advantage. Puducherry recorded its highest ever voter turnout of 90.47 per cent on April 9.
All results will be officially announced on May 4.
