El Niño is expected to develop from mid-2026 and could be strong, the World Meteorological Organization said on Friday, as a separate study showed that snow reserves across the Hindu Kush Himalayas fell to a record level for the fourth year in a row, twin signals that point to a difficult season ahead for India, which is already bracing for a lower-than-normal monsoon.
The World Meteorological Organization’s latest monthly global monsoon climate update indicates a clear shift in the equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures rising rapidly, indicating a possible return of El Niño as early as May to July 2026. The forecast also indicates an “almost universal dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures” during that period, with below-normal rainfall expected over India until July.
“After a period of neutral conditions at the beginning of the year, climate models are now in strong agreement, and there is high confidence in the emergence of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the following months,” said Wilfran Muvuma Okiya, Head of the Climate Forecasting Division at the World Meteorological Organization.
He added: “Models suggest this could be a strong event – but the so-called spring predictability barrier presents a challenge to confirming forecasts at this time of year. Confidence in forecasts generally improves after April.”
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate cycle driven by changes in ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño, the warmest phase, typically occurs every two to seven years, lasts about nine to 12 months, and is associated with drought in Australia, Indonesia, and parts of South Asia, and increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia. In India, the El Niño phenomenon depletes the monsoon rainy season. During the boreal summer, warm El Niño waters can fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific while hindering hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin.
As of early April, the ENSO system is in a neutral phase after the end of the 2025-2026 La Niña event. Observations indicate near-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, along with increased subsurface heat content. Most dynamical and statistical forecast models indicate that El Niño-neutral conditions will persist through the boreal spring, with El Niño emerging during the boreal summer or fall and likely continuing through the end of the year.
For the May to July season, land surface temperatures are expected to be above normal almost everywhere, and the signal will be particularly strong over southern North America, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe and North Africa.
Globally, 2024 was the hottest year on record due to a combination of a strong El Niño in 2023-2024 and the impact of climate change. The World Meteorological Organization said that although there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events, it could amplify the associated impacts because warming oceans and the atmosphere increase the availability of energy and moisture to counter extreme weather events such as heatwaves and heavy rains.
The World Meteorological Organization’s forecasts are in line with those for India. HT reported on April 13 that the India Meteorological Department forecast monsoon rainfall this year would reach 92% of the long-period average, with a margin of error of ±5% – its first forecast of below-normal rainfall in 11 years. IMD attributed these expectations to the El Niño phenomenon. The last time India saw below-normal monsoon rains was in 2023, although that year the IMD had forecast normal rainfall.
A below-par monsoon casts a dark shadow over an economy already concerned about growth, agricultural production and inflation, all collateral damage from the war in West Asia.
Meanwhile, snow cover across the Hindu Kush Himalayas fell to 27.8% below the long-term average, breaking last year’s record low deficit of 23.6%, and marking the fourth consecutive year of continued below-normal snowfall, according to the 2026 Snow Update from the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).
Researchers with the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development said the continued decline indicates a systematic collapse of seasonal snow reserves across the world’s highest mountain range. Between 2003 and 2026, the Hong Kong region experienced 14 winters – from November to March – with snowfall consistently below normal, a pattern that has intensified in recent years.
Snow persistence measures how long snow remains on the ground, and is a key indicator of climate impact on water resources. The International Center for Integrated Mountain Development said two basins registered positive stability – the Ganges +16.3% and the Irrawaddy +21.8% – providing limited local relief but insufficient to offset the regional crisis. In contrast, the Mekong River continues to have a severe deficit at -59.5%, the Tibetan Plateau at -47.4%, and the Salween River at -41.8%.
“This indicates a continuing decline in seasonal snow reserves at the regional level and requires early and coordinated water management and drought preparedness measures, especially in the snow-dominated western basins such as the Amu Darya, Helmand, Indus and Tarim,” the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development said.
