The veteran Iranian Supreme Leader and a host of other prominent figures and Revolutionary Guard commanders were killed in US-Israeli strikes, but the ruling regime maintained its ability to strategically plan and act in the war that began on February 28.
The Islamic Republic, born after the 1979 revolution, has built a complex power structure composed of multi-layered institutions supported by a shared commitment to the survival of the theocratic regime rather than reliance on a small number of individuals.
Here’s a guide to who now holds power and influence in a depleting but resilient hierarchy:
Is the Supreme Leader really responsible?
Veteran Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in one of the first strikes of the war. In office since 1989, he enjoyed absolute obedience throughout the regime and had the final say on all major issues.
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Under Iran’s official ideology of velayat-e faqih, the supreme leader is a learned cleric who holds temporary authority on behalf of the 12th Imam of Shiite Muslims, who disappeared in the ninth century.
The leader’s office, known as the House, houses a large staff who accompany other parts of the Iranian government, allowing the leader to intervene directly through the bureaucracy. The new leader, Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, has inherited this role and his broad formal powers, but lacks the automatic authority that his father enjoyed. By being selected by the Revolutionary Guards, he may also be beholden to the hardline military corps.
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He was injured in raids and was referred to on state television as a “janbaz,” or “wounded veteran” in the current conflict. More than three weeks after his appointment, he did not appear in any photo or video taken by the Iranians, and he issued only two written statements, raising questions about his condition.
How central is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps?
The Revolutionary Guards’ influence has been growing for decades, but in the midst of the war and after the killing of Ali Khamenei and the inauguration of Mojtaba Khamenei, they assumed a more central role in strategic decision-making. The Revolutionary Guard, which has long been prepared to endure the decapitation of its leadership, has a “mosaic” organizational structure with a line of replacements already named for each commander, and each unit able to act independently according to specific plans.
Several senior IRGC commanders were killed early on — following a long list of senior commanders killed in strikes last year — but have been replaced by other experienced men who have so far proven their ability to run a complex war effort.
This resilience reflects the leadership depth of the Corps, which took the lead in the devastating war with Iraq from 1980 to 1988, and has led Iran’s close engagement with groups fighting in a range of other conflicts across the Middle East for decades.
What role does political leadership play?
Iran’s political system combines clerical rule with an elected president and parliament, each of which has an important role in running the Islamic Republic alongside the Revolutionary Guard. The killing of the late Khamenei’s main advisor, Ali Larijani, was a real blow to the ruling authorities due to his extensive experience, his ability to work between the various power centers in Iran, and his skills in negotiating with the outside world.
There remain other political figures with capacity and experience, but the most prominent figures likely to replace Larijani and other individuals who were assassinated may be more hardline than those who were killed.
The death of IRGC Naval Commander Ali Reza Tangsiri, an experienced commander in office since 2018, was another major blow. Tangsiri reportedly played an important role in Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Who are some of the big names remaining?
IRGC Chief Ahmed Vahidi: The last commander of the Corps was appointed after two of his immediate predecessors were killed. He was influential in the Revolutionary Guards for years, fought in the Iran-Iraq War, ran the Quds Force, served as defense minister and helped crush domestic opposition. * IRGC Quds Force Commander Ismail Qaani: A secretive figure, he has managed Iran’s relations with proxies and allies across the region since taking over the unit in 2020 when its veteran leader Qasem Soleimani was killed by a US drone.
Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Baqir Qalibaf: A former Revolutionary Guard commander, mayor of Tehran and failed presidential candidate, Qalibaf may be the biggest political heavyweight still alive.
He has been increasingly outspoken in recent weeks, outlining Iran’s position as the war unfolds, and an Israeli official and a source familiar with the matter said he had been negotiating with the United States in recent days.
Judiciary Head Ayatollah Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejai: A former intelligence chief who was punished for his role in the deadly suppression of mass protests in 2009, Mohseni-Ejai is widely viewed as a hardliner.
President Masoud Pezeshkian: Although the Iranian presidency is much less important than it used to be, Pezeshkian is the highest-ranking directly elected figure in Iran, giving him an important voice. The limits of his influence were starkly demonstrated earlier this month when he angered the Revolutionary Guards by apologizing to Gulf states for Iranian attacks on their soil, and was forced to partially retract his statements.
Former Supreme National Security Chief Saeed Jalili: An injured veteran of the Iran-Iraq War and one of the most hawkish figures in Iranian politics, he was the losing 2024 presidential candidate and an uncompromising former nuclear negotiator.
Guardian Council Member Ayatollah Ali Reza Arfi: The senior cleric is a senior member of the Guardian Council, the body that selects candidates to disqualify from elections, and was so trusted that he was chosen to join the three-man interim council running Iran after Khamenei’s death.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi: The veteran diplomat has conducted high-stakes negotiations with Iran’s Western rivals for years, as well as with world powers Russia and China, which have better relations with Tehran, and with Iran’s Arab neighbors and rivals.
