What films would have won the Academy Award for Best Actor? 90+ positive votes. The winners are…

• 2010: “The Unknown Basterds”

  

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  It’s rare for an outsider in the Best Picture race to have a significant lead in Best Cast, but that’s exactly what happened the first year I did the poll. Jenny Jo and Joanna Ray chose the right mix of actors to portray Nazi hunters and Nazis in a film that took home Screen Actors Guild honors and Critics’ Choice Awards, and easily won this poll of what might have been at the Oscars.

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• 2011: “The Social Network”

  

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  This year it was everything King’s speech vs Social networkand the best selection category there could be no difference, with Black swan It also makes its way into the conversation. Although King’s speech He received three Oscar nominations for acting compared to just one for those other two films, which is what Casting Society voters tend to favor Social network. Noticeable absence: fighterthe only film since 2009 to win multiple Oscars for acting but without even a nomination in this poll.

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• 2012: “The Help”

  

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  While plenty of films dubbed “comedies” by the Golden Globe Awards get Oscar nominations, truly funny comedies rarely make it into awards conversations. Bridesmaids It represents a departure from that norm, and would have been a strong contender to win an Oscar for its casting. Ultimately, voters placed him in second place behind him HelpIt is the same movie that was defeated Bridesmaids For Best Supporting Actress.

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• 2013: “Argo”

  

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  Laura Kennedy is the potential winner of Argowhich would only add to the strangeness Argo It received almost every honor imaginable except for a Best Director nomination. He said that, Beasts of the Southern Wild The discovery of Quvenzhané Wallis was perhaps the biggest casting story of the season, and perhaps enough to propel him to an Oscar nod.

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• 2014: “12 Years a Slave”

  

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  This is the first of two consecutive wins for Francine Meisler (12 years of slavery, Birdman). This may be relevant to this year’s Oscars. Meisler was nominated for Sinnersa casting job so powerful it could win even a novice director an Oscar. But add to that the fact that a number of industry insiders will feel she deserves an Oscar (and not just the hypothetical one in this article!) for her impressive body of work, and that could be more than enough to vault her into first place.

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• 2015: “Birdman”

  

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  boyhoodBeth Sipko had a very difficult task: finding the right actors for the film who would grow gracefully before our eyes over the course of twelve years. This would have been very close, but Casting Society voters are hardly inclined toward Francine Meisler’s work BirdmanWhich won the Best Picture award.

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• 2016: “Highlight”

  

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  Of the 16 years included in this poll, five received a difference of three or fewer votes between first and second place. This is one of those years, tho Highlight superior room By only three votes (after a preferential ballot move that reduced the initial list of 15 candidates to 5). Although we can never observe the final vote totals at the Oscars, this is a good reminder that behind the scenes, some results will likely result in a surprisingly small margin.

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• 2017: “Moonlight”

  

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  According to survey participants, Yesi Ramirez and moonlight He would have won by a landslide. Perhaps this was early evidence that, no matter what the envelope might say, La la land There was no sure thing to sweep the remaining categories.

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• 2018: “Three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri”

  

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  No notable film had the best cast this year, with no Movie Night getting 30% of the vote. Sarah Haley Finn wins her first consecutive Oscar Three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouribut it could have easily gone to any of the five on this list.

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• 2019: “Black Panther”

  

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  Black Panther is a notable winner in its own right, leading by a landslide despite not being a front-runner for Best Picture and receiving no acting nominations. But it’s also worth noting that one of the films that didn’t win is: Crazy rich asians. It’s the only film in this entire article that wasn’t invited to the Oscars in real life, but it would have been if the casting category had existed at the time.

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• 2020: “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

  

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  I imagine parasite He could have been a strong contender here, but there is a lesson to be learned from him Once upon a time in HollywoodBeat: Receiving acting nominations is important. Black Panther He’s the one exception to the rule, as the only winner on this list to receive no acting nods. parasite It ends up as a very close runner-up to Victoria Thomas’ work that features Leonardo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie and a stellar supporting band.

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• 2021: “Land of the Bedouins”

  

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  This was perhaps one of the most controversial choices in the history of the category. After all, Bedouin Featuring a mix of well-known actors and real-life nomads. In fact, the Casting Society’s Artios Awards chose not to even nominate Bedouinand are the only winners in this article who were not nominated by the Screen Actors Guild for Best Ensemble Cast. However, five years later, casting directors have now decided that Nathan Harrison and Hannah Peterson’s work in Chloe Zhao’s film was indeed Oscar-worthy.

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• 2022: “Cuda”

  

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  If there had been a better choice, it might have changed our entire perception of the Oscar race that year. As you may remember, Dog power He appears to be the favorite, entering with twelve nominations for CodaThe three, and Coda He did not receive a nomination for directing or editing. But in this version of events, Coda It received a nomination for Best Acting Ensemble (and continues to win by a landslide), while Dog power He was left out of the category entirely despite his four acting nominations. Maybe that’s not enough to make Coda Better picture, but it’s definitely starting to feel closer.

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• 2023: “Everything everywhere at once”

  

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  Only three films have won three acting Oscars: A Streetcar Named Desire (1951), network (1976), and Everything everywhere at once (2022). I would have been quite surprised if this one had gone to any other nominee, and the Casting Society of America sees it the same way.

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• 2024: “Oppenheimer”

  

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  Oppenheimer This choice may seem obvious in hindsight, but it wasn’t so obvious at the time. The casting association chose themselves Moonflower Killers more Oppenheimer At the Artius Awards. But with the Oscars just around the corner, John Papsidera may be arriving at the Dolby Theater for the cast he’s assembled for Christopher Nolan’s epic.

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• 2025: “Sinister”

  

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  One of the most interesting races had occurred just a year earlier. Sean Baker and Samantha Cowan won BAFTAs Anura. Compiled by Nina Gold and Martin Weir concave A cast that earned Major Screen Actors Guild and Critics’ Choice honors. However, in a thrilling ending, it is Bernard Tilsey and Tiffany Little Canfield who hear their names called. evil.

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  ♦♦♦

  What about all the other years before 2010? I’ve already estimated what would win best ensemble cast over the 96-year history of the Academy Awards, based on the few data points available. But this is largely based on my personal guesses.

  ♦♦♦

  Where does that leave us this year? I’ve included my best attempt at selecting the best odds based on this historical data set in my article covering all of this year’s categories. But after just this year, there’s a lot we can learn here: This category will be closely tied to Best Picture. Larger groups perform well. Getting Oscar nominations helps with acting. The Screen Actors Guild and Artios Awards are relevant here, while the BAFTA Awards are not on the same level as the Oscars when it comes to casting.

  Somewhere in the accountant’s office, the results of the 2025 election are already known, hidden away from the world until March 15th. So, if you’ll pardon the pun, it looks like the dice have already been “rolled.”

  Ben Zauzmer is the author of Oscarmetrics: The Math Behind Hollywood’s Biggest Night.

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