Representative image (Source: ChatGPT)
Is Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal running out?The Middle East remains on edge after US President Donald Trump’s Operation Epic Fury and Israel’s Operation Visiting Lion targeted Iranian leadership and military infrastructure, killing Iran’s long-time leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and sparking a wave of retaliation from Tehran across the region.Since then, Iran has launched missile and drone strikes against US military bases, Israel and several Gulf states. But a new report suggests that Tehran’s most powerful weapon, its ballistic missile force, may already be under intense pressure.
Iran launches 5 waves of ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities in less than 12 hours
According to a report by the US-based Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), the US and Israeli strikes have sharply reduced Iran’s ability to launch missiles in the current war.
Missile attacks decrease sharply
The Jinsa Institute said that Iranian ballistic missile launches have decreased by about 90 percent since the beginning of the conflict. Attacks targeting Israel alone decreased by about 88 percent.The report also noted that Iran fired more missiles on the first day of Israel’s Operation Rising Lion last year than it fired during the first five days of the current war combined.The think tank said US Operation Epic Fury and Israel’s Operation Roaring Lion had reduced Iran’s daily missile launches at a rate nearly three times faster than during the 2025 conflict.
Bombers became the weak link
The main reason for this decline is the destruction of missile launchers. JINSA estimates that about 75% of Iran’s launch capacity has been destroyed in a short period.Launchers have become the main bottleneck in Iranian missile operations. Every time Iran launches missiles, US and Israeli forces get another opportunity to locate and destroy the remaining launch systems.As a result, Iran has shifted from large missile attacks to smaller, less frequent attacks.
Stocks are under pressure
Iran entered the war with significant missile reserves – approximately 2,000 medium-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel and between 6,000 and 8,000 short-range missiles used against regional targets.However, the continuing strikes destroyed many missiles and disrupted the logistics needed to move them from storage sites to launch sites.Intermediate-range missile losses are particularly devastating because these systems are specifically designed to target Israel and cannot be easily replaced by shorter-range weapons.The Jinsa Institute said that at the current rate of losses, Iran may lose much of its ability to fire these missiles at Israel within days to a week.
The strategy is shifting towards Gulf goals
The report also noted that Iran has spread its attacks across the region rather than focusing solely on Israel. By also targeting Gulf states, Tehran may be trying to increase pressure on US allies and expand the political influence of the conflict.This approach also requires different missiles – long-range systems for Israel and shorter-range missiles for the Gulf states.
Drones and agents are likely to be next
As its ability to launch missiles diminishes, Iran is expected to increasingly rely on drones and allied groups.Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen could play a greater role in attacks on Israel, American forces, and the Gulf states.The Jinsa Institute said Iran may continue to attempt occasional missile strikes or even launch a one-time large salvo. But such an attack would quickly exhaust the remaining launch pads.Overall, the report concludes, Iran’s missile campaign is likely to continue to shrink as US and Israeli strikes destroy launch pads and disrupt supply lines – forcing Tehran to rely more heavily on drones and proxy warfare to maintain pressure on its adversaries.