In its latest quarterly precious metals report, the brokerage said that gold prices crossed the $5,000 per ounce level in early 2026, marking one of the strongest long-term bullish phases in recent history.Gold has entered a “structural repricing phase,” indicating the beginning of a new supercycle rather than a short-term cyclical rally, the company said.
The goal is $6,000 in 12 months, and $7,500 in the medium term
MOFSL expects COMEX gold to stabilize at $6,000 per ounce – equivalent to about Rs 1.85 lakh per 10 gram locally – over the next 12 months.
He also sees the possibility of prices moving towards $7,500 per ounce in the medium term if geopolitical and financial pressures intensify.“The long-term outlook for gold remains positive. With global reserves gradually diversifying away from dollar-focused assets and physical supply remaining constrained, gold prices are likely to remain supported at $5,000 an ounce and above,” said Navneet Damani, head of research and commodities at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited, as quoted by news agency PTI.
Damani added that the current cycle is driven not only by inflation, but also by confidence – or lack thereof – in the financial and monetary systems.
Gold rises despite positive real rates
The report highlighted that gold continued to rise even when real interest rates were positive between 2023 and 2025 – a period when prices typically decline.This trend indicates that investors are increasingly concerned about rising global debt levels and the stability of long-term fiscal and monetary frameworks.“Gold’s strength despite positive real interest rates shows a clear shift in investor thinking. Real yields are increasingly seen as temporary and policy-driven, reducing the cost of holding gold and enhancing its role as an insurance against broader financial risks,” said Manav Modi, commodities analyst at MOFSL.
Geopolitical tensions and supply constraints add support
According to the report, rising geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Asia, coupled with renewed trade tensions and tariff-related disruptions, have led to increased inflation and currency fluctuations, making gold more attractive as a neutral and reliable asset.Damani noted that as financial pressures increased and questions about monetary independence emerged, gold’s role as non-sovereign money gained importance, leading to a structural shift in demand.The brokerage also pointed to tight global physical supply conditions supporting prices. Limited mine production, shrinking inventories across major exchanges, and high production costs have kept precious metal prices high.
Domestic demand and central bank purchasing
Domestically, rupee depreciation and strong retail demand further supported gold prices. The report said that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw renewed inflows after years of decline.Central banks have remained consistent buyers of gold, adding about 1,000 tons of gold annually for four consecutive years as part of efforts to diversify reserves and reduce reliance on dollar-denominated assets.Overall, the Ministry of Finance and Consumer Goods expects gold to remain well supported over the long term, driven by reserve diversification, limited supply growth and continued global economic and geopolitical uncertainty.