Donald Trump has changed his mind on backing the Chagos Islands deal because it would not allow the UK to use its air bases for a pre-emptive US strike on Iran, the Guardian has been told.
In his latest change to the agreement, the US president said on social media that the UK and US were “making a big mistake” by handing over sovereignty of the Keir Starmer Islands to Mauritius in return for continued use of their air base on one of the islands, Diego Garcia.
While Trump has previously criticized the plan, which is backed by the US State Department, in February he described it as the “best” deal Stormer could make under the circumstances.
But in a post by Trump on his own Truth social site, he linked the deal to US military strikes against Iran over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, which are believed to be imminent. He wrote: “If Iran decides not to sign the deal, the United States may need to use Diego Garcia and the airfield at Fairford to neutralize a potential attack by a highly unstable and dangerous regime.”
A pre-emptive strike on Iran is unlikely to comply with the UK’s interpretation of international law. US bases in the UK, such as Fairford in Gloucestershire, home to US B-2 bombers in Europe, can only be used for military operations if the UK government agrees and they are considered legitimate.
UK government sources claim that this is the reason why Trump has again turned against the Chagos plan.
On Tuesday night, Stormer and Trump spoke in a conversation that covered the situation in Iran, but a Downing Street readout of the call did not mention the Chagos plan.
The hope at No. 10 is that Trump will change his mind again. A bill relating to the Chagos Treaty will soon return to the House of Lords.
The bill reached the final stage but was postponed last month amid ongoing uncertainty about the US position, with speculation it could return to the Lords next week. However, this is not expected for several weeks now.
According to parliamentary rules, if the bill is not passed before the end of the current session of Parliament in May, the bill will have to be re-introduced.
A former government official who worked closely on the deal said he was worried it could fall apart. Ben Judah, who was until recently a special adviser to former foreign secretary David Lamy, told the Sun podcast: “Getting this deal through in the coming weeks and months will be tricky for the government.”
Conservatives continue to push the Trump administration to block the plan, which Downing Street says can only go ahead with a US buyout.
Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel is speaking in Washington DC next week and is expected to hold talks with US officials about the Chagos plan.
In a statement, Patel said the deal was “now dead in the water”, adding that “without the support of our American allies it is impossible for the deal to proceed, and Labor will soon run out of time to put anything before Parliament.”
A government spokesman said: “Routinely, we do not comment on operational matters. The political process between the US and Iran is ongoing, which the UK supports. Iran must never develop a nuclear weapon and our priority is security in the region.”
