It had hung fire for a year, with great hollows in it; And then it all happened so fast. The way the US-India trade deal was announced by President Donald Trump, and then confirmed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday, leaves many questions unanswered. Mathematically, these questions range from zero to 500 billion.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi with senior BJP leaders during the NDA Parliamentary Party meeting at Parliament Square in New Delhi on Tuesday. (ANI Image)First, Russian oilin him true social posts, Trump described Modi as a “great friend” and a “strong leader”, words he used as he and the administration lashed out at New Delhi on the global stage over the past few months. And then he unilaterally announced that Modi had “agreed Stop buying Russian oiland to buy more from the United States and possibly Venezuela”.
Despite the war in Ukraine, India’s oil purchases from Russia were half of the 50% tariff rate imposed by Trump.
That 25% went poof with this statement, confirmed by later US Ambassador Sergio Gore.
Trump also announced that “as per (Modi’s) request, effective immediately, we have agreed to a trade agreement between the United States and India, whereby the United States will charge a reduced reciprocal tariff, reducing it from 25% to 18%”.
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This means a 50% rate effective from August 2025 onwards down 18%higher than the pre-Trump era but moderated by the “arrogant” nature of the 79-year-old realtor-cum-reality TV star-cum-politician.
India’s tariff on the United States is zero?It is the following sentence that raises more questions than the Modi government’s answer, which has not yet clarified the issue.
Trump announced that India “will move to reduce its tariff and non-tariff barriers against the United States, zero”
Does this mean that India pays 18% and the US pays nothing? Opposition leaders and analysts have asked this question for a specific discussion in the parliament currently in session.
Trump also said that Modi is committed to “buying Americans at a much higher level” in addition to $500 billion in US energy, technology, agriculture, coal and many other products. It is about 45 lakh crores in Indian rupees.
Currently, India’s annual imports are from the US About $45 billion, And there was no clarity on what Trump meant by the $500 billion figure. There was no timeline.
Farming stoppedAnother word Trump mentioned is on the cusp of the next big question: agriculture.
The Indian side has repeatedly said it will not open up its agriculture, dairy and agro-allied sectors to US products – External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar notes “red lineEven when the US hiked tariffs by a historic 50% six months ago, PM Modi made a public statement: “Modi stands like a wall; Do not compromise with farmers.”
Trump’s mention of agriculture in this way has infuriated opponents.
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“India has been reduced by this unfortunate event. Parliament is in session. Text of both EU And the US trade deal must be tabled and debated in both houses – especially since the US Agriculture Secretary, Brooke Rollins, has issued a statement claiming that India has liberalized agricultural imports from the US,” said Jairam Ramesh, Congress Party’s comms chief and MP.
US Agriculture Secretary Rollins said on Tuesday that, as per the India-US agreement, Washington will export its farm products to India. Rollins said the deal would pump more cash into rural America.
“Thank you, US President Donald Trump, for once again delivering for our American farmers,” he wrote in X. “The new US-India deal will export more American agricultural products to India’s huge market, raising prices and pumping cash into rural America.”
“India’s growing population is an important market for American agricultural products, and today’s agreement will go a long way toward reducing this shortage. America’s first victory…”
As of 1:30 p.m. Thursday, India had not elaborated on the terms of the deal.
The agricultural sector supports about half of the country’s population and accounts for about 18% of India’s GDP, which explains the country’s continued protectionism.
What is the deal with Venezuela?Coming back to Crude.
In addition to the question of Russian crude oil, there are also Iran and Venezuela – all of which are mentioned in Trump’s demands. He said India would buy more oil from Venezuela, where the US recently ousted its president Nicolas Maduro in the middle of the night to force a regime change.
He recently said that someone is from Iran Tubes will face another 25% tariff, briefly expressing fears that India will suffer. India has already pulled out of Iran’s Chabahar port project following US sanctions.
Then on Saturday, Trump claimed that India will buy oil from Venezuela instead of Iran. India does not import significant amounts of crude oil from Iran due to US sanctions, although before the sanctions, Iran was one of India’s top sources of crude oil.
PM Modi, last week, spoke to Venezuela’s Acting President Delsey Rodriguez, who apparently has the support of the US.
The government said Modi and Rodriguez “agreed to expand and deepen bilateral partnership in all areas, including trade and investment, energy, digital technology, health, agriculture and people-to-people relations”.
Trump claims he now runs Venezuela and has allowed Maduro’s vice-president, Delsey Rodriguez, to be interim leader until he does what he wants — specifically, giving the U.S. access to Venezuela’s vast untapped oil reserves.
Congress has also raised questions about Venezuela’s share.
Party MP Sukhdeo Bhagat said, “I was surprised and wondering that Trump identified himself as the acting Prime Minister of India.
“We got to know everything about India through Trump – from whom we will buy oil, with whom we will have trade deals. Has PM Modi become so weak? This is not our victory; this is a deal,” he said.
The Indo-Pak ceasefire question is backAn old question has also made a comeback.
“Even during Operation Sindoor, Trump decided to end the India-Pakistan war,” Congress leader Udit Raj remarked.
He was referring to Trump’s repeated claims in May last year that he called for a ceasefire after India attacked terrorist groups’ bases in Pakistan in retaliation for the Pahalgam terror attack in Kashmir.
He was also upset that while Pakistan agreed to his demands and even supported his claim for the Nobel Peace Prize, India did not. The Modi government has insisted that it has not and will not act on the cues of anyone in such decisions.
“Until now, we had doubts, but now it is certain that even our domestic policies are being influenced by Trump,” Udit Raj said.
Meanwhile, MPs from the BJP and NDA, on Tuesday congratulated Prime Minister Modi in Parliament, hailing him as a generational leader who “made history”.
As a counter to the deal, a US executive order could provide clarity on the tariffs, Reuters noted. The trade agreement document is expected to outline the sectors covered by the agreement. Both were waiting.
Union Minister JP Nadda told Parliament that the government would issue a statement, sharing details of the deal; And ready to negotiate even amid opposition slogans in the Rajya Sabha.
Scale of tradeDuring 2021-25, US goods were India’s largest trading partner. It accounts for about 18 percent of India’s total exports, 6.22 percent in imports and 10.73 percent in bilateral trade.
In 2024-25, bilateral trade is set to touch $186 billion – comprising $86.5 billion in exports and $45.3 billion in imports.
Thus, India’s trade surplus with the US – the difference between imports and exports – was $41 billion in 2024-25. This gap has continued to widen.
In services, India exported an estimated USD 28.7 billion and imported USD 25.5 billion, adding to a surplus of USD 3.2 billion.
In all, India runs a total trade surplus with the US of around $44.4 billion.
Trump has underlined this gap, and wants India to balance it by allowing more US goods.
