India’s monsoon rainfall this year is likely to be below normal at about 94% of the long-period average, with a margin of error of ±5%, private weather firm Skymet Weather said on Tuesday, citing the return of El Niño as a major risk to the June-September season.
There is a 40% chance of below-normal rainfall — between 90% and 95% of the LPA — and a 30% chance of drought conditions, with precipitation falling below 90% of the LPA, according to Skymet’s forecast. The probability of normal monsoon rainfall is 20%, the probability of above normal rainfall is 10%, and the probability of excess rainfall is 0. The average LPA for the four-month monsoon season is 868.6 mm.
The projections carry significant economic implications. Monsoon is the lifeline of the Indian economy. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, 51% of the cultivated area in India, which represents 40% of production, depends on rain. With 47% of the country’s population dependent on agriculture for their livelihood, a lower-than-expected monsoon could dampen consumption in rural areas and push up food prices in a year when conflict in West Asia threatens to pose a greater threat to the availability of energy and fertilizer – critical agricultural inputs.
Skymet reported the risk as early as January. “The spread is likely to be below normal, at 90-95% of LPA. In its previous forecast in January 2026, Skymet had assessed the 2026 monsoon as below par and now holds the same level.”
The main concern is the return of the El Niño phenomenon. After a year and a half of La Niña conditions, the Pacific Ocean is ripe for El Niño-neutral conditions, but a shift is imminent, according to Jatin Singh, Skymet’s managing director. “The tropical coupling of the Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere is now stronger than before. El Niño is expected to occur during the early phase of the southwest monsoon and will continue to grow stronger until the fall of the year. The return of El Niño may herald a weaker monsoon. The second half of the season is likely to be more turbulent and irregular,” he said.
This is in line with the assessment of the Indian Meteorological Department. HT reported on April 1 that neutral ENSO conditions currently prevail in the tropical Pacific, according to the IMD. The latest forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Climate Prediction System indicate that El Niño neutral conditions are likely to persist until June, after which the probability of an El Niño event gradually increases.
M Mohapatra, director general of IMD, did not comment on Skymet’s forecast but said IMD may issue its initial forecast before April 15.
El Niño and La Niña are two opposite phases of the natural climate cycle — called ENSO, or El Niño Southern Oscillation — driven by changes in sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño, the warmest phase, usually suppresses the monsoon in India and leads to weaker rainfall. La Niña, its cooler counterpart, tends to enhance it.
Besides ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also affects the monsoon circulation. Skymet expects IOD to be neutral or slightly positive this year, which should contribute to a good start to the season. “A strong positive IOD event during the season has the potential to partially avert the ill effects of El Niño,” the forecaster said.
However, she added that the IOD is not expected to be strong enough to offset El Niño during the season. “Chances of a weak monsoon during the second half of the season cannot be ruled out. The distribution of monsoon rainfall will be at risk of variation and bias,” Skymet said. Central and northwest India may face rainfall deficit.
Skymet said June will be stable, but rainfall is likely to weaken from July to September. June rainfall is expected to reach 101% of the LPA (June’s LPA is 165.3 mm), but the numbers drop after that: July at 95% (LPA 280.5 mm), August at 92% (LPA 254.9 mm) and September at 89% (LPA 167.9 mm).
“After June, El Niño conditions are expected to develop rapidly. We expect June rainfall to be normal but in August and September it may be lower than normal. In the second half, El Niño conditions are likely to form. The IOD is also not expected to be very strong,” said Mahesh Palawat, Vice President, Climate and Meteorology at Skymet Weather.
Palawat added that unlike recent years, the spatial distribution of rainfall is likely to shift eastwards, with states such as Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Odisha expected to receive more rainfall than parts of northwest and central India. “This may affect paddy and other monsoon crops,” he said.
Skymet’s record is mixed. In 2023, before El Niño, rain forecasts were 94% below normal, and 94% came true. But in both 2024 and 2025, the forecaster underestimated the monsoon: it predicted 102% and 103% of LPA respectively, while actual rainfall was 108% in both years.
