In the past 45 days, India has appointed new chiefs of the Navy, Army and Intelligence Bureau as well as a new Chief of Defense Staff, virtually the heart of the national security establishment. There will be a new Air Chief in place within the next 75 days.
While the Modi government was able to successfully address the challenges faced by the Maoists, in the northeast except Manipur and in the Kashmir Valley after the Pahalgam massacre, a new national security challenge is emerging in Punjab once again. With the Akali Dal (Badal) losing political influence and its control over the Panthiya forces weakening, the emerging vacuum has led to fringe extremist players jumping in to make electoral gains in the upcoming Punjab Assembly elections next year.
There is a deliberate attempt to bring up the sordid decades of Punjab’s past, when Pakistan’s deep state fanned the flames of internal security in the name of Kashmir and Khalistan due to weak or ineffective governments at the Centre. Pakistan was also supported by Western countries, specifically the United States and the United Kingdom, as a quid pro quo for the assistance provided by Rawalpindi to fight the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.
Even today Pakistan continues to support terrorism in Punjab through a self-sufficient unit of hard drugs and weapons supplies through drones over India’s sensitive western border. With Pakistan now assisting the US in its mediation in the war with Iran and ostensibly addressing the unrest in the Middle East, pressure is once again mounting in Punjab through deliberate attempts to discredit the Punjab Police and security forces with propaganda films using OTT platforms and social media. Human rights violations over the sordid decades are compiled using grossly inflated figures without any mention of how security forces and the minority community were targeted by Pakistan-backed extremists during the same dark period in Punjab. While religious fundamentalism is on the rise in Punjab, the lack of effective governance by the ruling party in Punjab further complicates the issue as the state chief minister derives his political power from the party’s volatile president.
The extremist political mix has become more volatile as transnational gangs replace terrorist models in Punjab. The glorification of extremist elements and gangsters by popular musicians has created false role models for young people, whose life aspirations have turned into a visa to Canada, the United Kingdom, Norway or Germany.
Given the rapidly polarizing conditions in India’s key border state, it is time for the newly appointed security chiefs to ignore the gridlock in order to create better awareness of the threat coming from the terrorist state across the western border. National security organizations are not government departments where filing is the ultimate goal with risk-averse CEOs who rely more on technical intelligence than human intelligence. Instead of relying on scraps of intelligence from powers with vested interests, the urgent need now is for the security establishment to spend money to obtain actionable intelligence and expand its sphere of influence. While the tools of war are changing and so is the technology used by terrorists and gangsters, our institutions remain stuck in the past as institutional heads have distorted the idea that intelligence chiefs and service chiefs should have a moral compass.
As India’s aspirations increase under the Modi government, the challenges to national security will increase, as no one in the world will make room for a new superpower. Every attempt will be made to derail India’s rise overtly and covertly, through false narratives coordinated across online streaming platforms and social media. The only way India can confront these escalating threats is to build its proactive and strong deterrence capabilities. This can only be done by national security leaders who are selected on the basis of merit and willingness to take risks. Not by those who are constantly looking over their shoulders for guidance from the political leadership. Punjab will undergo its first test in the coming months and the new presidents must not fail.
