The World Meteorological Organization said on Friday that El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific are expected to intensify rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rains and other extreme weather events in many parts of the world.
WMO’s monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update indicates rapid development towards a strong El Niño event during July-September 2026. Multi-model ensemble forecasts from leading global production centers indicate a consistent and significant rise in ocean temperatures across the tropical central and eastern Pacific, with average seasonal sea surface temperature anomalies expected to exceed 2°C in key monitoring areas.
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Forecast models show remarkable agreement, providing high confidence in the forecasts. It is expected that the El Niño phenomenon will continue to strengthen during the fall in the Northern Hemisphere, with its impact extending to many regions of the world. Meanwhile, the tropical Atlantic basin is expected to remain generally warmer than average. El Niño is a naturally occurring weather pattern characterized by higher than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
The World Meteorological Organization said it is also working to intensify coordination, climate information services and early warning support to help governments, humanitarian agencies, climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, health and vulnerable communities prepare for potential impacts.
“El Niño conditions are already underway and are expected to rapidly intensify into a powerful event – as WMO forecasts accurately predict. This will intensify the chances of drought, heavy rainfall and the risks of terrestrial and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world,” said Celeste Saulo, WMO Secretary-General.
She added: “The WMO community has launched an unprecedented mobilization to coordinate activities across the United Nations and at the regional level to support governments, humanitarian organizations and climate-sensitive sectors. Advanced seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and mitigate the impact on our economies and societies.”
In India, strong El Niño negatively impacts the monsoon season, while also contributing to extreme weather events. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on June 12 confirmed the emergence of El Niño conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean, which will negatively impact the rainy season. She also said that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral, which normally cannot counter El Niño.
India already saw a monsoon deficit of 40% in June, making it the fifth driest June overall since 1901.
The forecast for July shows below normal rainfall again – 94% below the long period average (LPA). Overall, the International Meteorological Institute expects monsoon rainfall this year to reach 90% of LPA, leading up to El Niño.
El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years and usually lasts between nine and twelve months.
They often begin to develop between March and June, reach peak intensity between November and February, and exert their strongest influence on global temperatures during the year following their appearance.
