July this year will be drier than usual, with rainfall across the country expected to reach 94% of the long-period average, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday, dashing hopes of any major relief after a June that was the fifth driest in 125 years.
The agency also warned of higher than normal temperatures in large swaths of the country, which is expected to increase pressure on crops during India’s peak agricultural period. More than half of the area planted with kharif trees in India depends entirely on rainwater, and planting operations have already been delayed in several states, according to government data.
“Below normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country except some parts of northwest and north-eastern India, east-central India and the eastern peninsular region, where normal to above normal rainfall is likely,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department, said in a statement. However, the agency expects rainfall across the country in the first seven to 10 days of the month.
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Historically, July is India’s wettest month, with 280.4 mm of rain falling, or 32% of the monsoon total of 870 mm, according to IMD’s LPA 1971-2020, or long period average. June typically receives 165.3 mm of rainfall, or 19% of the monsoon LPA. However, India recorded only 99.5 mm of rain, 40% less than the LPA, making it the fifth driest June since 1901 and the driest since 2014 (92.8 mm). The driest June on record was 2009, with an average rainfall of only 87.6 mm.
The IMD attributed June’s deficit to a combination of negative factors: the absence of low-pressure systems that attract rain; The emergence of the El Niño phenomenon, which causes rainfall along the central and eastern equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean. An unfavorable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a moving system of winds, clouds, and pressure that brings rain as it orbits the equator; The neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is the temperature difference between the western and eastern Indian Ocean. A positive IOD, when the western Indian Ocean is warmer, feeds the monsoon clouds with rain.
“Usually we see two or three low-pressure areas developing in June, but we did not see a single area in June this year. We also had neutral El Niño and IOD conditions, which could not counter the El Niño phenomenon,” Mohapatra said.
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He said rainfall was higher than normal across the country on just one day last month – June 5.
“We expect the monsoon to advance further and is likely to reach Delhi by Thursday or Friday. We also expect rains across the country in the first week of July, and perhaps in the first 10 days,” he said, adding that a low pressure area has developed over the Bay of Bengal that will give the monsoon some much-awaited impetus.
Data shared by the Ministry of Agriculture showed that a drier June meant planting operations fell by about 23% in the country, with the total area reaching 18.272 million hectares as of June 25 compared to 23.646 million hectares the previous year.
Agricultural experts have warned that below-normal rainfall during the peak agricultural period could hamper cultivated acreage and productivity of pulses, oilseeds and coarse grains, although forecasts for the first week of July may provide temporary relief.
“Central and northwest India are expected to receive about 20% less rainfall than normal,” said Deepak Parikh, founder and chief economist at HnyB, an agricultural research and consulting firm that tracks the global agricultural economy. “These are prime areas for growing pulses and oilseeds.” Parikh said soybeans and tur are among the crops that face the greatest risks if rainfall remains uneven during the month. “Farmers who have already sown their seeds may end up facing challenges related to germination. If there are not good instances of rainfall on farms in the second half of July, there may be challenges in terms of production,” he added.
“Shortfall in kharif production is imminent if the monsoon is deficient,” said Ajay Jakhar, chairman of Bharat Krishak Samaj.
In its June forecast, the IMD revised its monsoon rainfall forecast downwards – from 92% of the long-period average issued in April to 90% – and attached a 60% probability of a deficient season, meaning there is a better than even chance that total rainfall will fall below the threshold considered even below normal.
If this forecast is correct, this will be the lowest rainfall in the monsoon season in 11 years. The forecast carries a typical error of plus or minus 4%.
June was also hotter than usual. The average monthly maximum temperature last month was 35.67°C, 1.06°C above normal, making it the 15th hottest June on record. Forecasts indicate that the maximum is expected to be above normal in most parts of the country in July, except for isolated pockets in west-central India. The minimum temperature will also be higher than normal in most parts of the country, except for pockets in central and northeastern India.
